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Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 100
The Colombia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Colombia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.62% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 8.37% of supply. Latin American regional oil use will average an estimated 7.76mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 7.91mn b/d in 2011 and reach 8.41mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production in 2010 should average an estimated 10.05mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.63mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.37mn b/d. This total falls to an estimated 2.29mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to slip further to 2.22mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will have consumed an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 252bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 247bcm in 2014, and implies 5bcm of net imports at the end of the period. Colombia’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 4.31%, while its share of production is put at 4.98%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.02%, with the country accounting for 4.66% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% yo- y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a fullyear outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility, and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Colombian real GDP growth in 2010 is forecast by BMI at 3.9%, and we are assuming an average annual increase of 3.6% in 2010-2014. The government is working hard to encourage international oil company (IOC) investment and boost near-term domestic oil production, aided by state-owned Ecopetrol. These efforts have been proving successful, and we are now assuming oil and gas liquids production of 890,000b/d by 2014, with the country expected to pump 795,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 221,000b/d by this time. The country’s export capability should therefore reach 669,000b/d by 2014. Gas consumption is forecast to increase from an estimated 9.0bcm in 2010 to 10.1bcm over the period, met by rising domestic production, which will also provide modest exports.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Colombian oil production of 17.0%, with crude volumes peaking at 940,000b/d in 2018, before declining to 930,000b/d by 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 24.9%, with growth averaging an assumed 2.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 250,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 11bcm in 2009 to 15bcm in 2018 and 2019. With demand growth of 30.5%, this implies peak export potential of 3.6bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Colombia holds second place, behind only Brazil, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It ranks third, behind Venezuela, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, just ahead of Peru. Although the absolute resource base is modest, the competitive environment is attractive and licensing terms have improved to become some of the best in the region. Country risk is moderate and Colombia is well placed to retain its strong position in the league table. Colombia now holds second place, ahead of Argentina and behind only Brazil, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its oil demand growth outlook, refining capacity expansion plans, moderate country risk and low retail site intensity. Argentina is well behind in the regional rankings and lacks the near-term potential to challenge Colombia.
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