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Bulgaria Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 85
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's food and drink industry.
Bulgaria remains, in our opinion, one of the least attractive food and drinks markets in the emerging Europe region. A poor economic outlook, with little optimism expected in the short term, is one of the key factors responsible for Bulgaria’s low ranking, with local currency depreciation also deterring foreign investment. In 2010, the consumer outlook in Bulgaria will remain suboptimal, given the expected 1% decrease in real private consumption. Additionally, the food and non-alcoholic beverages component of the consumer price basket remains adversely afflicted by deflation, with prices falling 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May 2010, having recorded negative growth since April 2009. While some recovery of food and drinks spending is expected in the latter parts of the forecast period, other emerging markets – both in the region and wider – are likely to attract more attention than Bulgaria.
Headline Industry Data
- 2010 per capita food consumption: +0.99%; forecast to 2014:+12.66 %
- 2010 alcoholic drinks sales (value): +1.07%; forecast to 2014: +12.21%%
- 2010 soft drinks sales (value): -3.25%; forecast to 2014: +8.66 %
- 2010 mass grocery retail sales: -2.77%; forecast to 2014: +18.54%
Key Company Trends
Retail Expansion Outside the Capital – Over the past months, Rewe-owned supermarket chain Billa
reported that it was planning to invest BGN65-71mn (US$40.8-44.5mn) per annum during 2011-2014 in Bulgaria. The company plans to open 10 new outlets by investing more than BGN65mn in the country by end-2010 in order to expand its store presence, according to company executives. We expect regional launches to gradually pick up over the H210 period after geographical recalibration in 2009. Along with Russia and Ukraine, Bulgaria was largely responsible for driving Rewe's foreign market sales growth in 2009, boosted by the introduction of its discount banner Penny in Bulgaria.
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