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Hungary Insurance Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 84
The Hungary Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's insurance industry.
Writing in July 2010, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2009. According to figures published by the regulator and the trade association, total premiums in 2009 amounted to HUF825.18bn. This included non-life premiums of HUF414.11bn and life premiums of HUF411.07bn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be HUF916.26bn, HUF550.52bn and HUF365.74bn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we are looking for non-life penetration to rise very marginally from 1.62% of GDP in 2009 to 1.63% in 2014. We also expect that life density will remain unchanged at about US$200 per capita over the forecast period. BMI’s proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for Hungary is 57.0 out of 100.0
The results for H110 posted by Vienna Insurance Group, Allianz, Generali and other major crossborder groups who have focused on Central and Eastern Europe were, as of late July 2010, yet to be published. We expect, though, that they will show that conditions – in both the non-life and the life segments – have remained difficult throughout much of the region this year. In Hungary, for instance, the 12% contraction in life premiums in 2009 followed a similar-sized reduction in the previous year. At this stage, we are looking for the life segment to shrink further in 2010. In terms of gross written premiums, both of the major segments of Hungary’s insurance sector are about the same size as they were in 2006.
Issues to Watch
Pricing In The Motor Insurance Lines
The weakness of CMTPL and CASCO premiums in 2009 implies that even Allianz, which accounts for nearly 40% of CMTPL premiums written in Hungary, lacks pricing power. If Hungary’s economy weakens further through 2010, the slide in non-life premiums could accelerate.
Investment Earnings
Relative to their peers in other countries across Central and Southern Europe, Hungarian insurers are highly exposed to volatility in local bond markets, whether as a result of problems that are specific to Hungary or as a result of contagion.
Rationalisation
There is a long-tail of small insurance companies in Hungary. Operating conditions may be such that some of these groups rethink their commitment to the market.
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