|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 105
The Hungary Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's oil and gas industry.
The latest Hungary Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.61% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.18% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn b/d in 2001 will have risen to an estimated 6.02mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.47mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.65mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.76mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 638.6bcm, with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Hungary’s share of consumption in 2010 is an estimated 1.64%, which is forecast to rise to 1.89% by 2014. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% yo- y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level.
Hungarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.1% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.8% in 2010-2014. Hungarian oil consumption reached an estimated 165,000b/d in 2010. We are expecting a gradual, ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 174,000b/d by 2014. Domestic production, which is largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from this decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes, reaching 148,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 10.5bcm in 2010 to around 13.8bcm in 2014 – implying that net gas imports will reach 11.8bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian oil consumption of 13.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 130,000b/d to 170,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 10.5bcm to 17.5bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Hungary now shares 10th place with Uzbekistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds 13th place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. The country’s minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. Hungary is below the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect nearterm progress further up the ratings. It is in ninth place, ahead of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and oil and gas demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against Hungary.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
|
|
|
|
