Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, September 2010, Pages: 105
The Venezuela Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's oil and gas industry.
The latest Venezuela Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 7.66% of Latin American oil demand by 2014, while providing 25.49% of supply. Latin American regional oil use will average an estimated 7.76mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 7.91mn b/d in 2011 and reach 8.41mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production in 2010 should average an estimated 10.05mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.63mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.37mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 2.29mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to slip further to 2.22mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 252bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 247bcm in 2014, and implies 5bcm of net imports at the end of the period. Venezuela contributes an estimated 14.66% to 2010 regional gas consumption, while producing around 13.39%. By 2014, it is expected to consume 13.55% of the region’s gas, while contributing 13.36% to supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00 per barrel (bbl), up 36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Venezuelan real GDP in 2010 is forecast by BMI to fall 3.8%, with an average annual increase of 1.5% expected in 2010-2014. State-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA) works in cooperation with numerous international oil company (IOC) partners in conventional and heavy oil projects. Although recent renationalisation moves, changes in taxation and alterations to the licensing system have reduced foreign involvement, several key players appear committed to the country. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of 2.71mn b/d by 2014, with the country expected to pump 2.53mn b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond the economic weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to increase by up to 2% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 644,000b/d by this point. The export capability would thus be about 2.07mn b/d by 2014. Gas production is forecast to rise from an estimated 29bcm in 2010 to 33bcm over the period, requiring 1.1bcm of imports in 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan oil production of 22.8%, with liquids volumes averaging 2.53mn b/d in 2010 before rising steadily to 3.10mn b/d by 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 10.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 677,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from an estimated 29bcm in 2010 to 50.0bcm in 2019. With demand growth of 26.6%, this implies export potential rising to 11.4bcm by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Venezuela now takes fifth place, behind Argentina, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) rating, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now lags Brazil in second place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, having held much of its ground thanks to its vast hydrocarbons resource base. Now five points behind Brazil and just one ahead of Colombia, its position is far from secure unless the overall risk situation improves dramatically. As well as high scores for reserves, production growth potential and reserves-to-production ratios (RPR), Venezuela benefits from the number of international companies active within its upstream industry. Venezuela now shares eighth place with Ecuador in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its refining capacity, retail site intensity and growth in GDP per capita. Only Bolivia is now below the country, but it is not capable of challenging Venezuela during the next few quarters.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Political SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Economic SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Drifting With The Tide
Quarterly Trends
Deepwater Turbulence
Global Oil Market Outlook
Waiting For The Wind To Change
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Latin America Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Venezuela Upstream Rating – Overview
Venezuela Upstream Rating – Rewards
Venezuela Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Venezuela Downstream Rating – Overview
Venezuela Downstream Rating – Rewards
Venezuela Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Liquefied Natural Gas
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Venezuela Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Venezuela Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
LNG Terminals
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Venezuela – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players In Venezuela’s Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
PdVSA
Chevron
Total Venezuela
Repsol YPF Venezuela
BP – Summary
Statoil – Summary
Eni – Summary
Petróleo Brasileiro (Petrobras) – Summary
Perenco – Summary
Galp Energia – Summary
BeloVenezolana – Summary
Others – Summary
Former IOC Partners – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Venezuela Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- PdVSA
- Chevron
- Total Venezuela
- Repsol YPF Venezuela
- BP
- Statoil
- Eni
- Petróleo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
- Perenco
- Galp Energia
- BeloVenezolana
- Former IOC Partners
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