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Iraq Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 74
Iraq Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iraq's defence and security industry.
Iraq is at its most stable since the 2003 US-led invasion, but the numerous challenges it faces present significant risks – with the result that it could descend in to chaos once again. That said, our core scenario is for the gradual consolidation of the democratic political system, which will in turn provide a platform for long-term economic development. As well as ridding Iraq of its purported weapons of mass destruction, the 2003 US-led invasion was ‘sold’ by the protagonists as a move to bring freedom to a population living under Saddam Hussein’s tyranny, and as an attempt to seed democracy in the Middle East.
In the subsequent years, as Iraq descended into sectarian violence and the civilian death toll soared, these apparently worthy intentions were dismissed by many observers as having been wildly over-optimistic. Moreover, some commentators suggested that these stated goals were merely a smokescreen for the US’s real objectives, namely ‘stealing’ Iraq’s oil. However, with levels of violence at post-invasion lows, the transition from dictatorship to democracy appears to be on more solid foundations. Indeed, March 2010 saw Iraq’s third round of post-Saddam national elections, contested by a wide range of both religious based and secular political parties.
On the macroeconomic front, we have kept our GDP forecasts for Iraq broadly unchanged this quarter: between 2010 and 2014, we are pencilling in average growth of 5.6% per annum. We see real growth coming in at a relatively subdued 3.8% and 4.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively, before expansion accelerates towards the end of the forecast period on the back of increases in oil production capacity. The cornerstone of the Iraqi economy for the foreseeable future will remain the oil (and, to a lesser extent, gas) sector. Iraq's proven oil reserves of 115bn bbl are the third highest in the world, behind those of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and given that much of the country is as yet unexplored there are upside risks to this figure. The next decade should see oil output increase considerably as the foreign oil companies, which over the past year have concluded major service contracts with Baghdad, ramp up their investments in Iraq.
Iraq does not have a functioning defence industry capable of meeting the requirements of its security forces. The nascent polity and the current security situation in the country, along with the instability and the widespread lack of infrastructure, have not allowed such an industry to be supported. It is very unlikely that a defence industry of note will be established at any level in Iraq for at least the next decade. Iraq attracts a BMI composite security risk rating of 56, with a relatively strong interstate rating, at 88. Despite recent tensions with Turkey, Iraq’s relatively high interstate rating suggests that it is highly unlikely that it will become a primary party to an inter-state conflict in the medium term. Its security rating is let down by its domestic ratings, which are concerned with threats from terrorism and criminal groups.
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