Israel Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, September 2010, Pages: 91
Israel Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Israel's defence and security industry.
The defence and security issues surrounding Israel are well understood, essentially static and seemingly intractable.
On each side is both a house divided and parties ready to make demands they well know cannot be accepted by the other. On the Palestinian side there is no one voice that speaks for Palestine, now effectively divided between Gaza and the West Bank. At the same time Israeli intransigence is a reflection of the dynamics within its ruling coalition.
International attention, almost all of it unflattering towards Israel, focussed on the clumsy way in which the Turkish supported fleet challenging the blockade of Gaza was intercepted.
On the ground though almost nothing changes. Israel remains threatened by rocket attacks and the likelihood of other terrorist activities. The occupied territories remain poor, unstable and dangerous. In this report we discuss several different scenarios, both internal to Israel as well as external to it, that describe how the present steady state position might be destabilised.
From a defence equipment market perspective, Israel is both a large consumer and also a significant producer/exporter of military hardware.
Economically, the position is mixed but mostly positive. The economy has returned to growth, recording GDP growth of 3.2% for the 12 months to the end of Q1, as compared to just 1.7% for calendar 2009. We expect the external sector to bounce back during the next 12 months, but that exports will grow more slowly than imports. The constraint here is that Israel exports principally to the slower growing developed economies. In 2009 the US accounted for 35% of all Israeli exports and the EU for 29%. The key for accelerated export growth will lie in Israel’s ability to develop new markets among the faster growing economies, especially in Asia.
Above all this though hangs the risk of a war that would disrupt both production and investment.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Israel Security SWOT
Israel Defence Industry SWOT
Israel Political SWOT
Israel Economics SWOT
Israel Business Environment SWOT
Global Defence Overview
Global Hotspots
Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
Latin America: Beyond Lula
Western Europe: All About Austerity
Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
Nuclear Proliferation
External Powers
The Outlook For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Israel’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Domestic Security Overview
Table: Insurgent Groups In Israel
External Security Situation
Background Brief: Israel’s Wars
The Golan Heights
Iran
Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (including conscripted)
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Table: Israeli Vehicles Capable Of Nuclear Delivery
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Key Players In Israel’s Defence Sector
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Israel’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel
Table: Israel’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Israel – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Profiles
Elbit Systems
Elisra Group
General Dynamics
Israel Military Industries
Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd
Country Snapshot: Israel Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
- Elbit Systems
- Elisra Group
- General Dynamics
- Israel Military Industries
- Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd
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