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Singapore Real Estate Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 70
Business Monitor International's Singapore Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's Real Estate industry.
Singapore’s economy is recovering strongly from the global downturn, driven largely by a resurgent manufacturing sector, a sharp pick-up in export demand and the spill-over effects into trade-related services industries. Singapore – as an export-oriented economy – was hit early and fairly hard by the economic downturn. Now, it is recovering strongly once more.
Our in-country sources, whom we interviewed in early February 2010 and again in July, indicate that the various sub-sectors have already adjusted to the global financial crisis. Rents and yields have fallen sharply in the office sub-sector. Conversely, rents (and yields) have already started to rise quite strongly in the retail sub-sector. In the industrial sub-sector, there was a sharp lift in yields – from very low levels – in 2008 and 2009.
In short, the overall pace of recovery is such that demand for space is picking up quite sharply, notwithstanding that vacancy rates remain quite high. Our in-country sources suggest that there should be a rise in rental rates of 3-5% in 2011, in all sub-sectors. This may be overly conservative. Over the medium-term, we expect that yields will adjust to the ‘normal’ levels that were prevailing prior to the global financial crisis in 2008-09. This implies that office yields will fall slowly, while retail and industrial yields should rise.
Key Features Of This Report
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries?
In Q3 we have introduced a very substantial new improvement to the reports. We have incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology sector of this report.
In Q4, we have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. We gained this data by way of a new round of interviews with our in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from our sources has caused us to make significant revisions to our forecasts for 2011-2014. We asked our sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. We explain their answers in the Forecast Scenarios.
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