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United Arab Emirates Real Estate Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 78
Business Monitor International's United Arab Emirates Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates' Real Estate industry.
The UAE is unusual among small, open economies as the considerable woes of its commercial real estate sector have little to do with the global financial crisis and everything to do with a building boom prior to 2008, which assumed biblical proportions.
Years of massive over- and mis-investment produced a financial crisis in Dubai last year. What is far less well-known is the massive over-supply of office space and retail space in Abu Dhabi and Sharjah as well. Abu Dhabi is the only city in which industrial sub-sector vacancy rates are still running at about 10%. A spectacular slump in rental rates last year caused sharp movements in rental yields in all three cities. Although a number of high-profile commercial projects have been delayed, postponed or cancelled, various developments in Abu Dhabi and Dubai (although not, it seems, Sharjah) should contribute to new supply in the coming years.
We interviewed in-country sources at the beginning of 2010 and again in July this year. An important adjustment that has taken place over the last 12 months has been the rise in yields in all three sub-sectors in Dubai. This is the consequence of a slump in capital values. Looking forward, we envisage that rental yields in all three cities will move towards normal – pre-2008 – levels. This implies a gradual fall in yields in Dubai, but a slight rise in Abu Dhabi. The crucial word here is ‘gradual’. We envisage that most of the protagonists in the UAE real estate market have the willingness and ability to take the long view – even though it will take years for the currently vacant space to be absorbed.
Key Features Of This Report This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries?
In Q310 we introduced a substantial improvement to the reports. We incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology sector of this report.
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