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Chile Retail Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 58
The Chile Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's retail industry.
The Q111 BMI China retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by 46% in local currency terms by the end of the forecast period, growing from a likely CNY16.33trn (US$2.39trn) in 2011 to a projected CNY23.91trn (US$3.50trn) by 2014. retail sales in China doubled between 2003 and 2008, when they broke through the CNY10trn (US$1.6trn) barrier for the first time. The Business
Blue Book 2010 issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) predicted that sales would reach CNY15trn (US$2.22trn) in 2010, slightly higher than BMI’s forecast of CNY14.22bn (US$2.08trn) for that year.
Strong underlying economic trends, population growth and the increasing wealth of individuals are key factors behind retail market expansion. Regulatory reform following China’s accession to the WTO in December 2001 has allowed foreign retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 13.9% in local currency terms. China’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$5.85trn in 2011. Average annual GDP growth of 7.7% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population estimated to increase from 1.35bn in 2011 to 1.37bn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by 38.3% to reach US$6,174. Consumer spending per capita is forecast for an increase from US$1,617 in 2011 to US$2,346 in 2014.
The growth in the overall retail market will be driven in large part by a growing urban population with high disposable incomes and an interest in aspirational purchasing. According to socioeconomic forecasters Global Demographics, more than 30% of all urban households in China had an annual income above CNY40,000 (US$5,848) in 2007. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimates that urban retail sales accounted for nearly 68% of total retail sales in 2009, down slightly on 2008. retail sectors that are likely to achieve substantial growth over the forecast period include over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with forecast sales of US$15.28bn in 2011 predicted to rise by nearly31% by 2014 to US$19.98bn.
Automotive sales, worth a forecast US$329.21bn in 2011, are predicted to grow by more than 50% by 2014, reaching US$494.14bn. In 2006, China overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest automotive market behind the US, following this up in 2007 with a record year in both sales and production terms.
Sales of consumer electronic products are predicted to increase by more than 27%, from US$174.45bn in 2011 to US$221.88bn by 2014, with double-digit growth predicted for key products such as notebook computers, mobile handsets and video devices.
A sizeable multinational retail presence following the lifting of foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions in 2001 has ensured the early adoption of modern retail best practices in China. Organised retail – i.e.: Western-style chain outlets, department stores, supermarkets, etc. – already account for an estimated 23% of the total retail market, far higher than the 5% in India. Chinese retailers have been expanding into secondary and tertiary towns and cities. By December 2009,
GOME Electrical Appliances Holding, China’s leading retailer of household appliances and consumer electronic products, had 260 outlets in 172 second-tier cities, accounting for more than a third of its stores and generating 24.26% of its total sales.
Partnerships between local players and multinationals are allowing for rapid development of the retail market. In November 2007, Beijing Hualian Group signed a joint venture agreement with British company Costa Coffee to open 300 Costa stores in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, north east China and other regions in the next few years. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2011 are a forecast US$3.09trn. China and India are predicted to account for more than 91% of regional retail sales in 2011, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2011-2014 is forecast by BMI at 48.1%, an annual average 15%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia. China’s forecast 2011 market share of 77.2% is expected to rise to 77.9% by 2014.
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