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Colombia Retail Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 59
The Colombia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's retail industry.
The Q111 BMI Colombia retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an estimated COP224,746bn (US$114.27bn) in 2011 to COP289,062bn (US$146.97bn) by 2014, a rise of nearly 29%. Underlying economic growth, a young and increasingly urban population, the rise in disposable income and greater numbers of working women are key factors behind the forecast growth in Colombia’s retail sales.
Colombia’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$328.46bn in 2011, with growth of 4.7% expected for the year. Average annual GDP growth of 4.8% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2014. With the population increasing from an expected 46.9mn in 2011 to an estimated 48.7mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 19.2% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$8,460.
Domestic demand will continue to be the key driver for the growth in GDP, with improvements in the security outlook feeding through to increased consumer and investor confidence. Although Colombia did not reach its target of 4mn tourist arrivals in 2009 due to factors such as the H1N1 virus and the global economic crisis, it still achieved 16% per cent growth in the number of foreign visitors, while the world average contracted by 4%.
In 2005, 64.4% of the Colombian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 39.2% in the 20-44 age range, which is crucial to retail sales. More than three-quarters of the population were classified by the UN as urban (77.4%). In 2010, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 80%, with 38.5% in the 20-44 age band and 67.2% of the population expected to be active. The retail sector benefits from Colombia’s status as the third most populous country in Latin America.
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