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Oman Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 76
Business Monitor International's Oman Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Oman's telecommunications industry.
At the time of writing the Q410 Oman Telecommunications Report, no new data for Q210 had been released by either the Omani regulator or the country’s operators. New data on the fixed-line market led us to revise our forecasts in the last update, and BMI has not seen a reason to change these. We now foresee a faster-than-expected decline in fixed-line usage, even after the entry of Nawras’ voice and internet offering, while the initial effects of a new effort to disconnect inactive mobile users has seen BMI lower its 2009 baseline for mobile subscriber forecasts. Similarly, we have downplayed our previous forecasts for broadband services, predicated on the slacker growth reported early in 2010. The mobile market supported 4.201mn mobile subscribers at the end of March 2010; this represented a yo- y increase of 25.2%. There was a clear boost in subscriber numbers in Q409 and Q110 that was driven by organic customer additions at Omantel and by sales recorded by the country’s MVNOs. Unlike many other regional markets, the uncertain economic climate did not appear to have had a significant impact on
Omani mobile customer growth in 2009, and the recovery being seen in 2010 will only serve to improve matters, particularly with regards to 3G take-up. The presence of a large number of inactive SIMs, together with a strong multiple SIM ownership trend, enforces our belief that the new inactive customer disconnection policy will lead to noticeable subscriber number reductions in the months ahead. BMI’s revised broadband subscriber forecast for Oman cautiously predicts that the sector will grow by more than 27% in 2010. This is slightly stronger growth than experienced in 2009, but remains well below the growth seen in 2008. Slower growth in 2009 likely reflected the weaker economic climate that prevailed during this time. In 2010, we expect the broadband market to benefit from the launch of WiMAX-based services by Nawras. Omantel has plans to continue investing in the expansion and modernisation of its own broadband infrastructure and has even begun deploying FTTH in selected new residential developments.
One particularly significant development has occurred since BMI’s last report: the launch of Nawras fixed-line and broadband services. Highly important to keep an eye on, it was not a full service launch, and no data yet exists as to how successful it has been in attracting new sign-ups. Services began on July 20 2010, and were offered over a WiMAX delivery network.
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