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Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 111
Indonesia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Indonesia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 4.94% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 10.86% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn b/d in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bcm and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Indonesia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is expected to be 7.68%, while its share of production is put at 18.31%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.23%, with the country accounting for 15.71% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, the authors are now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
The authors forecast Indonesian real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2010. We foresee average annual growth of 5.7% in 2010-2014. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. Numerous international oil companies (IOCs) work in partnership with national oil company Pertamina and the state. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 965,000b/d by 2014, although the country is expected to pump 1.03mn b/d in 2010. Consumption is forecast to increase by up to 2.5% per annum to 2014. Our estimates imply demand of 1.49mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 526,000b/d by 2014. Gas production, rising to an estimated 82bcm by 2014, should provide end-period export potential of 36.8bcm, with supply risk on the downside.
Between 2010 and 2019 we are forecasting a reduction in Indonesian oil production of 20.98%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 810,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 20.68%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.65mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 76bcm in 2010 to a peak of 90bcm by 2017-19. With demand growth of 58.79%, this provides an export capability peaking at 43.6bcm in 2012, before falling to 29.5bcm by 2019, largely in the form of LNG. Details of the 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Indonesia is ranked 12th behind Pakistan in the composite Business Environment (BE) league table. This reflects its ninth place, ahead of Thailand, in the updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, with a relatively strong resource position offset by poor output growth prospects, a deteriorating reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and extensive state involvement. The country sits just two points behind the Philippines, with some chance of a change in position during the coming quarters. Indonesia ranks ninth in the downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its low level of retail site intensity, limited refinery capacity expansion plans and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook. It is just ahead of Pakistan, and may struggle to defend its position over the longer term.
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