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Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 96
Malaysia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Malaysia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.78% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, providing 8.50% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn b/d in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bcm and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Malaysia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 6.45%, while its share of production is 16.87%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 5.46%, with the country accounting for 15.33% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, the authors are now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
The authors forecast Malaysian real GDP increasing by 14.9% in 2010, with average annual growth of 4.8% forecast for 2010-2014.
State-owned Petronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) under a production sharing system that we believe will result in oil production of 755,000b/d by 2014. Consumption is forecast to rise by up to 2% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 536,000b/d. Malaysia’s gas exports are set to rise from an estimated 38bcm in 2010 to 46bcm in 2014, with production climbing from an estimated 70bcm to 80bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 6.14% decrease in Malaysian oil production, with crude volumes peaking at 770,000b/d in 2011/12. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 19.62%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 580,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 70bcm in 2010 to a possible 100bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 20.13%, this provides an export capability reaching 61.6bcm in 2019, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections. Malaysia is ranked seventh behind the Philippines in the composite Business Environment (BE) league table. Its strong showing reflects the country’s fifth place in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting a strong resource position and a moderate gas output growth outlook, being offset by extensive state involvement. The country is just one point behind Papua New Guinea (PNG), but three points ahead of China. Malaysia ranks equal 13th behind Vietnam and alongside PNG in the Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its limited refinery capacity expansion plans, sluggish oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively high level of retail site intensity.
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