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Australia Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 61
Business Monitor International's Australia Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Australia's agribusiness service.
BMI View: Australia will see growth across all agricultural sectors following the global economic recovery, with demand primarily led by Asian emerging markets. As a developed state, Australia will not expect to see large consumption increases. Despite this, Australian exports should see increased export opportunities through free trade agreements, particularly with its regional peers and Middle Eastern markets.
Key Forecasts - Wheat production growth to 2013/14: 25%. Wheat consumption growth to 2014: 13%. Australia's signature export good will show strong production increases owing to increased deregulation in the sector and enhanced export opportunities, particularly to the Middle East. Given the recent spike in wheat prices, Australia wheat exports stand to gain, especially on the back of an estimated year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in production by 4.2% for 2010.
- A surge in rice-consuming Asian immigrants combined with increased interest in foreign foods should see rice gain in popularity. Assuming the rate of growth of immigrants, rice consumption growth to 2013/14: 21%.
- Milk production growth to 2014: 12% and consumption growth to 2014: 6%. Consumption growth will be driven mainly by population growth, since at close to 110kg per year, Australia already has one of the highest global per capita milk consumption rates. - 2010 Real GDP Growth: 2.3% (up from 1.4% in 2009; predicted to average 2.3% from 2009 to 2014).
- Real Interest (cash rate eop): 4.25%. Up from 3.75% eop in 2009. Industry Developments
Experiments are underway to produce rice in areas outside of the Riverina - the main rice growing regionwhere irrigation is not necessary. Another potential avenue for the expansion of rice production is the Ord River Irrigation Area in the remote Kimberley region of Western Australia. The US$390mn project will bring around another 12,000 hectares of land under cultivation, with the first parcels being sold off in 2011.
Canadian fertiliser giant Agrium has offered to buy the Australian Wheat Board (AWB) straight up for US$1.1bn in an all cash deal on August 18. For the recently privatised AWB, the move would help fulfill a goal of joining forces with a global player after its monopoly over Australian wheat exports was recently revoked in 2008. And on July 6, Indonesian Wilmar International, the world's largest palm oil producer, agreed to buy Sucrogen, a major Australian sugar producer for US$1.75bn, in a bid to pursue growth strategies in Asian markets which synergise its operations.
Despite the 2010 Australian elections resulting in a hung parliament at the time of this writing, BMI notes that there are more rural politicians being represented in the government as independent seat holders. Consequently, it is possible for these politicians who are usually more pro-farmer, to lobby for more protectionist policies to be passed in the next few years. This will be intended to boost purchases of domestically produced agricultural products which have been facing stiff competition from cheaper imports.
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