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Italy Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Italy Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Italy's agribusiness service.
BMI View: Farmer protests have remained a fixture in Italian agriculture in 2010, highlighting some of the problems that refuse to go away. In particular, Italian farmers protested a government scheme to spare producers who exceed their quotas from the usual EU fines, saying it unfairly left out those who had already paid them. The reaction of the farmers, who said they have to produce large quantities of milk just to survive, shows quotas remain a sore point in the industry. The Italians can be expected to push for more reforms to the EU dairy industry going forward.
Key Views
- Poultry production is forecast to perform strongly. Lower feed prices combined with higher prices for poultry meat boosted margins, putting the industry on a healthy footing. In 2010 we expect expansion to continue and are forecasting growth of 3.9% to reach 1.19mn tonnes. - Beef production, as in most of Europe, is expected to continue its decline. We expect beef production to fall slightly from an estimated 1.06mn tonnes in 2009 to 1.05mn tonnes in 2010. Over our forecast period we expect a further decline to 1.02mn tonnes in 2014, down 3.90%.
- In 2010/11, reports of good growing conditions and excellent water availability mean we expect wheat production to come in at 7.48mn tonnes, up 18.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). BMI forecasts a rebound in corn production to 8.51mn tonnes.
- New data shows milk production declined lin 2009. Eurostat now estimates production at 10.42mn tonnes, down 0.7% year-on-year from the 10.49mn tonnes recorded in 2008. The drop came despite the raising of Italy's milk quota by 5% from April 2009. We expect a recovery, however, as prices rise again, with production to increase to 10.49mn tonnes in 2010.
- New Minister of Agriculture Giancarlo Galan has said he will push hard for legislation to protect traditional Italian foods from counterfeiters, after Italian farmers protested against imports of mozzarella from a German firm. The cheese had reportedly turned blue after exposure to the air - and was being sold under Italian sounding brand names. The legislation should help protect Italian cheeses from cheaper imports.
- Italy has expressed opposition to a proposed free trade deal between the EU and Mercosur. Although Italy was not among a group of 10 countries that the French government led in issuing a statement opposing the deal, the country is believed to have concerns over the consequences to its livestock industry.
- The debate over genetically modified (GM) crops took an interesting turn in Italy in 2009. A farmer attempted to test the muddy legal waters on biotech crops by planting a field of MON810 corn. In July, after he announced the plants were ready to harvest, 70 environmental activists invaded the farm and destroyed the crop. The future of GM in Italy remains difficult to predict, with strong lobbies both for and against the technology. While BMI believes that the prevailing wind remains against biotech crops, change is a possibility.
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