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Argentina Retail Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 66
The Argentina Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's retail industry.
The Q410 BMI Argentina Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from ARS61.24bn (US$19.44bn) in 2010 to ARS76.51bn (US$24.29bn) by 2014. An expanding population, rising disposable income and a taste for ‘luxury’ items are key factors behind the forecast growth in Argentina’s retail sales.
Argentina’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$351.0bn in 2010, with an increase of 4.3% from 2009 forecast as the economy begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 2.6% is predicted by BMI for 2010-2014. With the population increasing from an estimated 40.7mn in 2010 to around 42.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 64%, reaching US$14,143 in 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$5,017 in 2010 to US$8,130 in 2014.
In 2005, 63.2% of the Argentine population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.8% in the 20-44 age range. A massive 90.6% of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached more than 93.0% of the total population, with 38.0% in the 20-44 age band. By this time, 64.9% of the population is expected to be active.
Efforts to rebuild credit following the financial and political crisis of 1999-2002 had a positive impact on consumer expenditure and, consequently, retail sales. In attempts to repair consumer confidence, banks and retailers introduced more favourable terms for issuing consumer credit, and retailers – particularly the larger ones – established more flexible payment options to encourage expenditure.
Tourism plays an important part in Argentine retail sales. During 2009, the country attracted 4.3mn international tourists and US$3.9bn in tourism receipts, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, INDEC). More than 5mn tourists are expected in 2010
Retail sub-sectors likely to grow strongly over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales expected to rise by more than 41% between 2010 and 2014, from US$30.47bn to US$43.04bn. Consumer electronic sales are forecast to grow by 36% from an expected US$4.14bn in 2010 to US$5.64bn by 2014. Automotive sales are forecast to increase by nearly 62% between 2010 and 2014, from US$4.79bn to US$7.75bn.
Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2010 are expected to reach US$1,166bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$2,590bn. Mexico and Brazil are expected to account for an estimated 74.3% of regional retail sales in 2010, with the two countries plus Venezuela likely to account for 84.6% of all retail sales in the region by 2014. Argentina’s predicted 2010 market share of 1.7% is expected to fall to 1.3% by 2014.
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