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Bulgaria Retail Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 46
The Bulgaria Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's retail industry.
The Q410 BMI Bulgaria Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will grow from an estimated BGN13.92bn (US$9.73bn) in 2010 to BGN16.76bn (US$11.72bn) by 2014. Key factors behind retail market expansion include rising disposable incomes and Bulgarians seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains. EU membership gained at the start of 2007 and a substantial amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 4.0%, in local currency terms, between 2010 and 2014.
Bulgaria’s nominal GDP in 2010 was US$40.36bn, with a decline of 1.6% for the year expected to translate into growth of 2.6% in 2011. Average annual GDP growth of 2.4% is forecast by BMI between 2010 and 2014. Although the population is predicted to decrease slightly, from 7.6mn in 2010 to 7.4mn by 2014, consumer spending per capita is expected to increase from US$3,912 to US$4,852 over the same period. Consumer spending per capita of the middle 60% of the Bulgarian population is forecast by the World Bank to rise to US$5,941 by 2012.
The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by a growing urban population with higher disposable incomes and an interest in aspirational purchasing. According to the UN Population Division, the urban population in Bulgaria is expected to grow from 70.5% of the total in 2005 to 72.2% in 2010, and to more than 78.0% by 2030.
Retail sectors that are likely to show substantial growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, with BMI estimating that sales will rise by nearly 28%, from an estimated US$1.19bn in 2010 to US$1.52bn by 2014. Over-the-counter pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase by nearly 14%, from an estimated US$0.23bn in 2010 to US$0.26bn, by the end of the forecast period. Vehicle sales are predicted to increase from an estimated US$2.29bn in 2010 to US$2.54bn by 2014, a rise of 11%.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. Bulgaria’s predicted market share of 0.8% in 2010 is expected to decline to 0.7% by 2014.
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