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Croatia Retail Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 68
The Croatia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's retail industry.
The Q410 BMI Croatia Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will rise by more than 15% by 2014, growing from a predicted HRK79.57bn (US$15.50bn) in 2010 to HRK91.57bn (US$17.84bn) by 2014. Contributing to annual retail sales growth of 4.0% are higher disposable incomes, consumers seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains, easier access to credit and forthcoming EU accession.
Croatia’s nominal GDP in 2010 is predicted to be US$63.24bn, with growth of 0.5% forecast for 2010 following the estimated 5.2% decline in 2009. Average annual GDP growth of 2.7% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. Although the population is forecast to remain static throughout the forecast period at 4.4mn, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 17% by 2014, reaching US$17,248. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,154 in 2010 to US$9,751 by 2014.
The strong tourism industry in Croatia should continue to boost retail sales across all sectors. Croatia is the 18th most popular tourist destination in the world, receiving more than 11mn foreign tourists in 2008 and generating around EUR8bn (US$10bn) in revenue. The 3% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in tourist arrivals over January-December 2009 was a result of key tourist groups from the eurozone tightening their belts rather than from any fundamental decline in Croatia’s popularity as a tourist destination. Despite an 0.2% fall in the number of tourist arrivals in May 2010 compared with the same month in 2009, figures should recover as recessionary factors diminish.
In terms of retail sub-sectors, spending on food, beverages, alcoholic drinks and tobacco fell between 2005 and 2007 as Croatians began to spend more on aspirational items such as clothing, footwear and furniture, according to figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).
Data from the Household Budget Survey: ‘Household Consumption and Household Income 2005-2007’ by the CBS show that average annual personal consumption per household of food and beverages fell from 33.2% of personal consumption in 2005 to 31.6% in 2007, while consumption of alcoholic drinks and tobacco declined from 4.0% to 3.9%. Consumption of clothing and footwear, on the other hand, rose from 7.7% to 7.9% of personal consumption, while consumption of furniture increased from 5.1% to 5.4%.
Retail sub-sectors likely to achieve steady growth over BMI’s forecast period include over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals. BMI data suggest that OTC pharmaceutical sales will amount to US$0.12bn in 2010, and we forecast an increase of 7.8% to US$0.13bn by 2014. Consumer electronic sales are forecast to grow from US$0.97bn in 2010 to US$1.19bn by 2014, an increase of 23.2%.
The retail sub-sector likely to show the most growth is automotives, with BMI predicting that sales will increase by nearly 39% during the forecast period, from US$1.23bn in 2010 to US$1.70bn by 2014. The Croatian Chamber of Economy (CCE) says that 50% of Croatian customers do their shopping mostly by car, particularly when visiting cash-and-carry outlets and hypermarkets.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. Croatia’s predicted 2010 market share of 1.3% is expected to remain static until 2014.
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