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Czech Republic Retail Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 65
The Czech Republic Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech Republic's retail industry.
The Q410 BMI Czech Republic Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by nearly 15% during the review period, from a predicted CZK909.81bn (US$87.89bn) in 2010 to CZK1.05trn (US$101.02bn) by 2014. Rising disposable incomes, easier access to credit, the increasing number of large retail outlets and shopping centres and increasing car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership since 2004 and substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) continue to drive growth, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 3.3% in local currency terms over the period.
The Czech Republic’s nominal GDP in 2010 is forecast to be US$206.18bn, up by 1.8% year-on-year (yo- y). Average annual GDP growth of 3.2% is predicted by BMI for 2010-2014. The population is expected to remain static, at about 10.4mn, throughout the forecast period, but GDP per capita is predicted to rise by 23.3% by 2014, reaching US$24,450. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from a predicted US$12,059 in 2010 to US$15,527 by 2014.
BMI data suggest that over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales will grow by nearly 21%, from US$0.81bn in 2010 to US$0.98bn by the end of the forecast period. Consumer electronic sales are forecast to expand by nearly 19%, from a predicted US$4.46bn in 2010 to US$5.30bn by 2014. However, vehicle sales are expected to decline by 2.6%, from US$14.80bn in 2010 to US$14.41bn by 2014. According to UN data, in 2005 just under 37% of the Czech population was in the 20-44 age range. This is forecast to dip slightly, to 36%, by 2010 but will continue to account for a key element of retail spending. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 71.2% in 2005 and it should still be around this level in 2010.
The unemployment rate is forecast to reach 9.8% in 2010 as the effects of the global economic slowdown persist. BMI forecasts that it will begin to decline in 2011 and reach 5.5% at the end of the forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. The Czech Republic’s forecast market share of 7.6% in 2010 is expected to decline to 7.1% by 2014.
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