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Poland Retail Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 63
The Poland Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's retail industry.
The Q410 BMI Poland Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by nearly 28% in local currency terms by 2014, growing from a predicted PLN387.16bn (US$146.87bn) in 2010 to PLN494.65bn (US$187.65bn). Rising disposable incomes, consumers seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains, and increased car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership since 2004 and increasing amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 6.5%.
Poland’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$469.55bn in 2010, up from US$452.57bn in 2009. Average annual GDP growth of 3.9% is forecast by BMI between 2010 and 2014. Although the population is expected to decrease slightly, from 38.2mn in 2010 to 38.0mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 49% by 2014, reaching US$18,290. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for it to increase from a predicted US$7,304 in 2010 to US$10,673 by 2014.
With around 38mn people, Poland is the biggest market among the new EU countries. The population is also one of the most youthful in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with more than 37% of all citizens 20-44 years old, according to UN Population Division data. This proportion is forecast to rise to more than 38% in 2010 and represents a key element of future retail spending.
In 2008, according to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), the biggest increase in sales (38.7%) came from retailers selling clothes and footwear. Retailers selling furniture, radio and television equipment and household appliances recorded an increase of 28.8%. Other groups with high sales were books and stationery (20.9%), and pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment (15.8%). The trend for increased spending on non-essential, non-food items is a reflection of the maturing of the Polish retail market as it begins to track more closely Western European purchasing trends. Teenagers and young adults in particular are driving fashion sales in Poland.
Retail sub-sectors that are likely to achieve steady growth over the period include automotives, with BMI forecasting that sales will rise from a predicted US$5.60bn in 2010 to US$7.80bn in 2014, an increase of more than 39%. Consumer electronic sales are forecast to rise by nearly 25%, from a predicted US$5.75bn in 2010 to US$7.18bn in 2014. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to grow by nearly 33%, from US$2.75bn in 2010 to US$3.65bn by 2014.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. Poland’s predicted 2010 market share of 12.7% is expected to increase to 13.2% by 2014.
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