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Serbia Retail Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 50
The Serbia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's retail industry.
The Q410 BMI Serbia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by 48.1%, from a predicted RSD1,243bn (US$21.30bn) in 2010 to RSD1,840bn (US$31.54bn) by 2014. Underlying economic growth, rising disposable incomes and the development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Serbian retail sales.
Serbia’s nominal GDP is expected to be US$41.08bn in 2010, with annual growth of 2.7% forecast following 2009’s 3.0% decrease. Average annual GDP growth of 4.7% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. Although the population is forecast to fall slightly, from 7.3mn to 7.2mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by nearly 49% over the period, reaching US$8,369.
Serbia is one of the poorest markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), plagued by political uncertainty and high unemployment, both of which deter foreign investment. Low levels of disposable income, the prevalence of corruption and the poor state of infrastructure make this a challenging market. However, the medium- to long-term potential is significant, particularly if Serbia can achieve EU accession.
In 2005, almost 67% of the Serbian population was described by the UN as economically active, with just under 51% in the 20-44 age range, crucial for retail sales. Just over half of the population, 52.3%, was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have risen to 53.8%, but with 48.1% in the 20-44 age range. By this time, 66.8% of the population is expected to be economically active.
The Serbian retail sector is still underserved and fragmented compared with more mature markets, with only 25m2 of retail space per 1,000 inhabitants, compared with the EU average of 270m2. However, the increasing development of organised retail infrastructure will result in retail sub-sectors such as over-thecounter (OTC) pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics growing substantially over the forecast period. Sales of OTC pharmaceutical products are predicted by BMI to increase from US$0.13bn in 2010 to US$0.17bn before the end of the forecast period, a rise of nearly 33%. The consumer electronics sector is forecast to grow by more than 36%, from US$1.16bn in 2010 to US$1.58bn by 2014.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. Serbia’s predicted 2010 market share of 1.8% is expected to increase to 2.1% by 2014.
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