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Slovenia Retail Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 44
The Slovenia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's retail industry.
The Q410 BMI Slovenia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from a projected EUR16.0bn (US$23.52bn) in 2010 to EUR19.91bn (US$29.27bn) by 2014, an increase of more than 24% in local currency terms. Rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Slovenian retail sales.
Slovenia’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$47.16bn in 2010, with 2009’s decline of 7.7% expected to turn into growth of 2.0% in 2010 as the economy slowly begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 2.9% is forecast by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population expected to remain static, at 2.1mn, over the period, consumer spending per capita is forecast to rise from US$12,269 in 2010 to US$14,634 by 2014.
The size of the urban population in Slovenia is unusually small, which partly reflects the absence of large cities resulting from the mountainous terrain. Even in the capital city Ljubljana there are fewer than 300,000 residents. The average age in the country, at 41 years, is also high compared with other European countries. Both of these factors work against retailers. However, unemployment, which rose to an estimated 10.3% in 2009, looks set to trend lower from 2010, ending the forecast period at 7.0%. In 2005, almost 71% of the Slovenian population was described by the UN as economically active, but with just 36.6% in the 20-44 age range. Just over half of the Slovenian population, 50.8%, was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to fall to 47.4%, with only 32.9% aged 20- 44. By this time, 68.4% of the population is expected to be economically active.
Using BMI Food & Drink data, we identify a food and drink market share in 2010 of 19.4% of total retail sales. This is forecast to decline to 16.3% by 2014 as the non-food sector matures. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase from US$0.05bn in 2010 to US$0.07bn by 2014, a rise of 28.4%. Automotive sales are expected to increase by 5.8% to US$1.40bn over the same period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. Slovenia’s predicted 2010 market share of 2.0% is expected to rise slightly to 2.1% by 2014.
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