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Peru Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 69
The Peru Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Peru's telecommunications industry.
BMI has included ARPU forecasts for Peru's mobile market for the first time this quarter. The outlook is not especially positive, although in line with our ARPU analysis of other markets in the region and global ARPU trends. ARPUs have fallen over several years as new competition has emerged, bringing in price falls and new services. While prepaid services have undoubtedly brought real growth to Peru's mobile market, subscribers to these services generate much lower revenues and this has affected operators' bottom lines. While Peru will see continued growth, we believe the growing focus on rural subscribers will mean there is little prospect of rising ARPUs over the next five years.
Our forecasts for the mobile market take into account the increase in Q110 subscriber growth, although we continue to expect more subdued growth between 2010 and 2014. Reaching rural subscribers will take considerable financial outlay and reaching some areas is difficult. While BMI believes operators will pursue a rural strategy, there will still be opportunities in major towns and cities to generate revenues from new services, such as mobile content and mobile broadband. Such value-added services (VAS) will be important for continued revenue growth and will enable operators to generate increasing loyalty among subscribers.
Peru's political and economic outlook is fairly stable, and these scores have increased in the Business Environment Ratings, but falling ARPU and slowing growth countered this, with a fall in Peru's Industry Rewards score. While Peru remains firmly in the middle of the Ratings, the slowdown in growth does little to improve its overall position in relation to its peers.
BMI sees strong growth in the broadband market as government projects to bring remote towns online begin to bear fruit and mobile broadband generates much of the market's growth. Other Latin American markets have seen strong growth and the trend seems set to reach Peru too. BMI believes it is possible that mobile broadband could become a major technology in the broadband sector if prices are kept low and 3G networks are expanded quickly. This will put more pressure on fixed-line operators to keep services competitive and ensure that broadband growth continues.
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