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Sudan Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 63
The Sudan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sudan's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q410 update on the Sudanese Telecommunications market contains new operational and financial data published by the leading network operators. Since our last update, new data has been published by both Zain and MTN depicting the size of their respective mobile businesses in Sudan. Furthermore, in addition to publishing year-end data, Sudanese fixed-line incumbent operator Sudatel has also published mobile customer data for the end of March 2010.
Based on the most recent data published by these three operators, we estimate that Sudan had 17.75mn mobile telephony customers at the end of March. Although this figure was up by 38% year-on-year (y-oy), quarterly growth was just 4.2%. The weaker growth in Q110 reflected the poorer quarterly performance reported by Zain. Zain noted that it experienced a slow start in new SIM activations in the first three months of 2010. In March 2010, the Zain Group completed the sale of its other African assets to India’s Bharti Airtel. Following the sale, Sudan made up 28% of Zain’s total customer base and 25% of the operator’s revenues. These figures illustrate the growing importance of Zain’s Sudanese business. In contrast to Zain’s relatively weak growth in Q110, rival cellco MTN reported quarterly growth of 7.1%. Meanwhile, incumbent operator Sudatel reported a 12% increase in customers in the twelve months to March 31 2010. Quarterly growth for the operator was much lower than either Zain or MTN.
BMI continues to estimate a combined figure for the mobile subscribers served by Vivacell and Gemtel, the regional operators in the semi-autonomous South of Sudan. In February 2010, it was reported that Libyan government investment vehicle Libyan African Investments Portfolio (LAP) had acquired an 80% stake in Gemtel via its telecoms arm, LAP Green Networks. LAP Green already operates in East Africa through its 80% shareholding in Rwandan operator Rwandatel and a 69% stake in Uganda Telecom (UTL). The company also holds interests in telecoms operators in Niger and Côte d’Ivoire. The arrival of LAP to the Sudanese sector is expected to result in a new round of investment for Gemtel.
This quarter sees no further changes to our growth forecasts for Sudan’s fixed-line telephony and internet user markets. Data on these sectors is hard to come by and, from all accounts, penetration levels remain low. Over the next five years, we predict that Sudan’s internet-user base will expand at an annual average growth rate of 9.5%. By contrast, we continue to predict steady fixed-line growth over the next few years. Growth will be underpinned by ongoing infrastructure investments in fixed wireless technology. This quarter sees the introduction of new terminology to describe the different categories surveyed within BMI’s Telecoms Business Environment Ratings. BMI undertook this change in order to standardise the Business Environment Ratings across different industry sectors. Sudan remains in 15th position in our ratings table for Sub-Saharan Africa. With the exception of the Industry Rewards category, Sudan continues to score below average in all of the categories surveyed.
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