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Poland Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 70
The Poland Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's defence and security industry.
Poland has seen a rapid and positive recovery after the huge loss of its leading political figures in April. Presidential elections in July saw opposition leader Bronislaw Komorowski emerge victorious with an estimated margin of 52.5% to 47.4%. The reforming agenda of Komorowski’s Civic Platform party is expected to drive growth and will allow the government to press ahead with its proposed measures to trim the nation's fiscal overspend.
The military sector is still expected to take some time to recover from the deaths of leading figures that were also on the presidential plane which crashed. These killed included: Aleksander Szczyglo, chief of the National Security Office, General Franciszek Gagor, army chief of staff, Admiral Andrzej Karweta, head of the Polish navy and general Tadeusz Buk, head of Polish land forces.
Vladimir Putin’s decision to oversee the crash investigation may have healed initial Russo-Polish relations in the short term: however, underlying suspicions may be compounded by the deaths. Large scale disagreements over from foreign policy, energy and historical politics are likely to see little change and will remain a major political and defence issue. The abandonment of US plans for a missile defence shield in Poland have helped to mitigate disagreement along with a new US-Russia strategic arms reduction treaty, signed in March 2010.
Poland’s economic situation remains particularly robust in 2010. Having outperformed during the recession, we believe that the Polish economy will also outperform during the recovery. As the only major CEE economy to avoid recession in 2009, instead expanding by 1.7%, we forecast a stronger bounce in growth to 3.4% in 2010, accelerating further to 3.9% in 2011. This compares favourably to regional peers Hungary and the Czech Republic. Moreover, Poland will outperform the eurozone, where we project anaemic growth of just 1.0% over the same period.
Poland’s defence budget remains somewhat reduced in comparison with previous spending. The reputation of the country for efficient and effective defence spending has been put under pressure by recent events, and it is likely this will drive further restructuring of the industry. This has seen some success to date with US-Polish manufacturers seeing wins in the US defence sector. Poland’s front-line troop numbers are also expected to fall as the country moves towards fully professional armed forces.
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