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Romania Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 64
The Romania Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's defence and security industry.
Romania is moving steadily forward after recent political difficulties and severe recession throughout 2009. President Traian Basescu (Democratic Liberal Party) is starting to see certain policies paying off: however, enforced austerity measures are increasingly making his mandate unpopular. To make matters worse, widespread flooding in parts of northern and central Romania in late-June lead to devastation across the country with two deaths and damage to farm land and infrastructure. This has provided a further setback to both reform momentum and political stability, which is likely to impact payouts from Romania's joint EU-IMF bailout package.
The global recession in 2009 hit Romania particularly hard, with GDP slumping -22.4% over the year. 2010 is expected to be somewhat better, with growth remaining negative at -1.1%. The economy appears to have turned around, and is now on the rebound, albeit with continuing risks. Romania’s GDP growth is expected be in positive territory for H210, and it is expected to show a growth rate 11.5% in 2011 Corruption has again been in the spotlight in Romania with the EU issuing a formal warning over the country’s handling of prevelant corruption. The EU warned Romania about a lack of substantial progress in its efforts to eradicate corruption. A member of the European Commission stated that the country had lost its initial drive and must now show greater responsibility in meeting the requirements. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index’ ranks Romania equal last out of the 30 European countries. Restructuring and privatisation continues within the defence industry, and has been successful in attracting interest from foreign firms. Joint ventures, at least with the larger Romanian companies, have grown. In the longer term, privatisation, modernisation and increasing foreign involvement are likely to drive defence exports.
Inadequate legal infrastructure and inefficient regulations nonetheless hamper the industry. Further, increased foreign competition in the industry, especially from Russia and China, mean that risks are heightened for domestic companies.
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