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Global Oil Market Outlook to 2020
Datamonitor, Sep 2010, Pages: 44
The price of crude oil simultaneously reflects and directs the performance of the global economy, the costs businesses and consumers face and the performance of other commodities and financial indicators. In the past 12 months we have seen crude oil markets effectively tracking equities, unsure of the strength of the economic recovery. How will fundamentals play out in the next decade?
Scope
- A three scenario price forecast for crude oil prices to 2020, each based upon alternative economic growth and geopolitical scenarios
- An analysis of the economies of major oil demand growth regions across the globe, including an assessment of China's role in oil demand
- An in-depth study of the 24 largest oil producing state's supply outlook. Each entry assess the geology, recent investment and political climate
Highlights of this title
The global economy has rebounded far more vigorously than expected. Non-OECD growth is supporting oil demand and thus prices. This contrasts with the developed Western economies, where growth remains sluggish. Tightening efficiency regulations and the on-going shift to service-based economies in these regions will keep oil demand growth subdued.
Total non-OPEC liquids supply is seen increasing through most of the next decade but this growth rate declines to zero by 2019, when output peaks. The vast majority of the growth in supply derives from unconventional output. This includes bio-fuels, ethanol, GTL and NGLs. Without this growth, Non-OPEC conventional crude supply peaks around 2015.
Total OPEC production capacity is set to increase by nearly 6mb/d between 2008 and 2015. This growth is largely due to projected increases in capacity in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The projected call on OPEC is an estimate of the difference between global demand and total non-OPEC supply.
Key reasons to purchase this title
- Forecast supply, demand and price of oil to 2020, based upon geological surveys, sophisticated econometric modelling and political analysis
- Model the impact of alternative economic or geopolitical scenarios on the price of oil and prepare your business accordingly
- Understand the key issues affecting current and future supply dynamics in the world's 24 largest oil producers
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