Applications: Preparing for the App-ocalypse
Borrell Associates Inc, September 2010, Pages: 29
Mobile apps are all the rage. More than a half-million apps are downloaded every single hour, and the average smartphone user has 22. But the future is cloudy for those trying to tackle the mobile universe via an app. Research shows that after six months, only one of those original 22 apps is still in use. On top of that, a debate is raging as to whether apps will survive a more sophisticated mobile browser fueled by HTML5. This 28-page report maps the landscape and offers 14 charts and graphics illustrating what's happening -- and what's likely to happen over the next five years -- as the media world becomes increasingly mobile. "Mobile Applications: Preparing for the App-ocalypse" also offers 14 pages of data detailing mobile advertising estimates, mobile promotions spending estimates, forecasts, and mobile spending by format (text, app, browser, email, etc.).
The report is certainly intriguing, but the publisher hopes you find it actionable as well. It's vital to begin mapping a strategy for a media future that's rapidly winding up in people's hands, and "Mobile Applications: Preparing for the App-ocalypse" is designed to help you do just that.
Borrell Associates forecasts that U.S. spending for ads delivered by mobile apps will explode from $305 million this year to $685 million next year and more than $8 billion by 2015 – with $1.2 billion of that coming from local advertisers. Almost 5 billion apps have been downloaded to mobile devices since Apple’s App Store opened in 2008. Eighty percent of those have been free, but users have spent $1.5 billion on the rest.
Borrell Associates estimates that about one in every five computing devices in the nation can receive mobile ad messages today. By 2015, that ratio will triple to three in every five, fueling much of the growth in mobile ad spending, and by then the line between “mobile devices” and personal computers will be practically irrelevant.
Today the average smartphone has 22 apps on it, but the half-life of an app is about a month – in six months only five percent of them have been retained; churn is high. Nevertheless, tales of nearinstant riches have app developers flocking to conferences and coding their hearts out; the vast majority of them, however, will not earn back their investment.
Apple’s early lead in the mobile app game may not last forever, either: Google’s open and feature-rich mobile operating system, Android, is winning the war for app developer mind-share now that tablet computers are on the scene.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. THERE’S AN APP FOR THAT?
Fig.1: Categories for Apps Used During the Past 30 Days
Fig.2: Percent of Apps Retained, by Months since Download
Fig.3: Results from Appcelerator’s June, 2010 Survey of 2,733 Application Developers
2. APPS VERSUS BROWSER
3. A BREAKOUT YEAR
Fig. 4: U.S. Ad Requests, Forecast Through 2015
Fig. 5: 2010 Projected Mobile Ad Requests by “Post-click Action”
4. FOLLOW THE MONEY
Fig. 6: Mobile Marketing Spending Share of Total Online Marketing, 2009 - 2015
Fig.7: U.S. Mobile Marketing Spending, 2006-2015
5. MOBILIZING AD SPENDING
Fig. 8: Mobile Ad Spending, 2006-2015
Fig. 9: Current U.S. Population of Mobile Ad-Capable Devices
6. “A” IS FOR APP
Fig.10: Projected 2010 Mobile Ad Spending by Delivery Method
Fig. 11: Mobile App Ad Spending, 2009-2011
Fig. 12: Mobile App Ad Spending, 2007-
7. PROMOTIONS: THE OTHER SIDE OF THE MOBILE MARKETING COIN
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