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The China Bank Lending Survey - Issue 8 2010
Pacific Epoch, Sep 2010, Pages: 6
With net new bank lending during the first seven months of the year accounting for 69% of the government’s full-year RMB 7.5 trillion lending target, bank lending will have to slow during the remainder of the year in order to hit the fullyear target. Monthly net new bank lending will have to average around RMB 470 billion; in July, net new bank lending totaled RMB 532.8 billion.
Opinion is split as to whether or not the banking regulator and the central bank will urge banks to cut back on lending during the remainder of Q3 and Q4 in order to hit this target, or whether they will be prepared to overshoot this RMB 7.5 trillion target in order to ensure continued credit to fuel investment, industrial output and business growth for the remainder of the year. A PBoC report published this week removed a reference to the need for bank loans to be balanced evenly throughout the ear, which some analysts have taken as a sign that the central bank wants lending to slow in order to hit the full-year target. However, no clear sign has yet emerged as to policymakers’ intentions.
In order to gain a better picture of banks’ lending behavior in August, as well as lending demand and outlook and the impact of government policy on their lending activities, we surveyed 100 loan officers at branches of 20 city-level commercial banks, located in nine provinces, during the last few days of August. Respondents did not yet know their final bank lending totals for August but could reliably project them. This month we resumed our focus on city-level commercial banks after surveying Big Four and national commercial banks for each of our past two monthly surveys.
City-level commercial banks predominantly lend to private-sector small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
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