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The China Export Survey - Issue 8 2010
Pacific Epoch, Sep 2010, Pages: 6
China’s official export figures for August, which were released today, showed exports continuing to track close to historic highs, despite a m-o-m slowdown and moderating y-o-y growth rates. Last month, the total value of exports was $139.3 billion. This figure was down 4.3% m-o-m, and while it represented a 34.4% y-o-y increase, this too was down from July’s 38.1% y-o-y increase. Nevertheless, total exports in August were the second-highest on record. Exports in July, China’s highest ever, were artificially boosted by exporters rushing to ship orders ahead of the abolition of export tax rebates on more than 400 goods, which came into effect on July 15. Although m-o-m declines in exports to both the EU and the US will raise concerns about the likely impact of slowing demand in these markets on Chinese trade numbers, exports to both markets remain close to all-time highs.
In order to gauge sales orders and outlook for exporters on the ground, assess concerns about rising labor and raw material costs and examine whether tight export profit margins are causing manufacturers to shift their business focus to domestic sales, we spoke with 100 export manufacturers located in 12 different provinces between August 30 and September 3. In nearly all cases, we spoke to manufacturers whose business is at least 90% export-based, as measured by total sales volume. Our survey respondents reported strong sales growth in August and a positive outlook for September. Sales tend to predate export shipments by at least one month, so we expect exports to remain close to historical highs over the next few months, even if y-o-y growth rates are likely to continue to decline, due in part to a much stronger base comparison from late Q3 09 onwards.
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