2010 Mobile Banking and Smartphone Forecast: Fast-Growing Smartphone Market Will Offset Lost Momentum in Mobile Banking
Javelin Strategy & Research, September 2010, Pages: 37
Mobile banking has not evolved to the extent that financial institutions (FIs) and mobile vendors had anticipated, yet the evolution of smartphone functionality coupled with consumers’ increasing adoption of smartphones gives mobile banking the chance to live up to expectations. Optimistic indicators such as better data plans, marketing efforts from financial institutions, mobile capabilities, diminishing carrier dependency and continuing smartphone trends will help drive mobile banking adoption. Javelin predicts that smartphone penetration will continue at a rampant pace, thus spurring higher mobile banking numbers. Both mobile bankers and smartphone owners will steadily increase through 2015, despite current economic conditions and slower mobile banking adoption rates in 2010.
Primary Questions
- What will mobile banking adoption look like and how quickly will it take off?
- At what rate will smartphone adoption continue?
- Which smartphones are most popular, and which will have the biggest impact on mobile banking?
- What are potential roadblocks for consumers who have not tried mobile banking, and what can financial institutions do to minimize them?
- What are the key drivers to mobile banking adoption?
- How should banks and credit unions position themselves to succeed as mobile banking institutions?
- What changes can FIs expect, and how will consumers’ use of mobile banking grow in the next five years?
Methodology
This report is based primarily on data collected online in the United States from a random-sample panel of 3,100 respondents with mobile phones in July 2010, with an overall margin of sampling error of ±1.79 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This report is also based on data collected online from a random-sample panel of 5,211 U.S. households in March 2010. The survey targeted respondents based on representative proportions of gender, age and income compared to the overall U.S. online population. Overall margin of sampling error is ±1.36% at the 95% confidence level.
Additionally, this report includes data collected online from a random-sample panel of 2,779 respondents in April 2009, with an overall margin of sampling error of ±1.86 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. It also incorporates the 2009 and 2010 Mobile Banking Scorecards, which reviewed the top 18 and 19 financial institutions offering customer-facing mobile banking services (out of the top 40 and 30 financial institutions, respectively, by deposit base). The surveys targeted respondents based on representative proportions of gender, age, income and ethnicity compared to the overall U.S. online population.
Rounding (in the underlying numbers) in charts accounts for the slight differences in percentages. The majority of Javelin data for online banking financial alerts is based on “online households” vs. individual consumers. This is a typical way of presenting online banking data because account management is typically collected on a per-household basis. In 2009, the U.S. population was estimated to comprise 310 million people.1 That number includes 232 million adults, 118 million households and 87 million households that are online. On average, there are about 2.6 people per household. Javelin also collects online-banking data using a base of all consumers for comparison purposes.
Overview
Primary Questions
Methodology
Definitions Used in Report
Executive Summary
Recommendations
Mobile Banking Forecast
Smartphone Forecast
Google’s Android vs. Apple’s iPhone vs. RIM’s BlackBerry: Outlook for 2011
Roadblocks Hindering Mobile Banking Rates
1. Mobile Phone Penetration Drops with the Economy
2. Consumers Miss the Current Value Proposition
3.Concern About Security Remains a Stumbling Block
4. Supply-Side Offerings Mismatch the Demands for Mobile Banking
5. Marketing and Messaging Efforts Are Still Lagging
Mobile Banking Drivers
1. Smartphone Apps Zero In on the Most Influential Mobile Bankers
2. Smartphone/Feature Phone Crossover Accelerates
3. FIs Target Mobile Banking’s Power Users
4. Advertising Campaigns for Mobile Banking That Are Working
5. Better Data Plans and Mobile Network Operator Consolidation Now Available
Appendix
Related Research
Companies Mentioned
Table of Figures:
Figure 1: Definitions Used in Mobile Banking and Smartphone Forecast Report
Figure 2: Triple-Play Approach to Mobile Banking
Figure 3: Javelin’s Five-Year Forecast of Mobile and Mobile-Banking Users, 2008–2015
Figure 4: Javelin’s Five-Year Forecast of Mobile Banking Adoption, 2008–2015
Figure 5: Javelin’s Five-Year Forecast of Adult Smartphone Users, 2008–2015
Figure 6: Consumer Adoption of Smartphone Platforms, 2010 vs. 2009
Figure 7: Smartphone Forecast for 2011 by Type
Figure 8: Mobile Phone Ownership by U.S. Adults, March 2008 to March 2010
Figure 9: Reasons Consumers Do Not Use Mobile Banking, 2010 and 2009
Figure 10: Households’ Preference for Mobile Remote Deposit Capture by iPhones, All Smartphones, and All Consumers
Figure 11: Consumers’ Perceptions of the Safety of Mobile Banking
Figure 12: Consumers’ Use of Various Modes of Access to Mobile Banking, 2009 vs. 2010
Figure 13: Primary Methods Consumers Use to Conduct Mobile Banking
Figure 14: Comparison of Various Mobile Banking Access Modes
Figure 15: Mobile Bankers in the Past 90 Days by Phone Type
Figure 16: Financial-Institution-Provided Access Modes for Mobile Banking, 2008–2010
Figure 17: Smartphone vs. Feature Phone Penetration
Figure 18: Likelihood That Consumers Will Purchase a Smartphone as Their Next Mobile Device
Figure 19: Mobile Bankers in the Past 90 Days by Smartphone Type
Figure 20: Mobile Bankers in the Past 90 Days by Heaviest User Groups
Figure 21: Bank of America’s Mobile Banking Product on Its Website
Figure 22: Wireless Plans of Smartphone Owners and All Consumers
Figure 23: Consumer Wireless Providers, 2009–2010
Figure 24: Top Three Selling Mobile Phones of the Top Four Carriers, Q3 2010
Figure 25: U.S. Unemployment Rates, 2008–2010
Figure 26: Mobile Bankers in the Past 90 Days
Figure 27: Smartphone and Feature Phone Owners by Mobile Bankers and All Consumers
- Apple
- RIM
- AT&T
- Sprint
- Bank of America
- T-Mobile
- Barclays
- Tracfone
- Boost Mobile
- US Cellular
- Discover
- USAA
- Google
- Verizon
- JPMorgan Chase
- Virgin Mobile
- Metro PCS
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