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2010 Mobile Banking and Smartphone Forecast: Fast-Growing Smartphone Market Will Offset Lost Momentum in Mobile Banking
Javelin Strategy & Research, Sep 2010, Pages: 37
Mobile banking has not evolved to the extent that financial institutions (FIs) and mobile vendors had anticipated, yet the evolution of smartphone functionality coupled with consumers’ increasing adoption of smartphones gives mobile banking the chance to live up to expectations. Optimistic indicators such as better data plans, marketing efforts from financial institutions, mobile capabilities, diminishing carrier dependency and continuing smartphone trends will help drive mobile banking adoption. Javelin predicts that smartphone penetration will continue at a rampant pace, thus spurring higher mobile banking numbers. Both mobile bankers and smartphone owners will steadily increase through 2015, despite current economic conditions and slower mobile banking adoption rates in 2010.
Primary Questions
- What will mobile banking adoption look like and how quickly will it take off?
- At what rate will smartphone adoption continue?
- Which smartphones are most popular, and which will have the biggest impact on mobile banking?
- What are potential roadblocks for consumers who have not tried mobile banking, and what can financial institutions do to minimize them?
- What are the key drivers to mobile banking adoption?
- How should banks and credit unions position themselves to succeed as mobile banking institutions?
- What changes can FIs expect, and how will consumers’ use of mobile banking grow in the next five years?
Methodology
This report is based primarily on data collected online in the United States from a random-sample panel of 3,100 respondents with mobile phones in July 2010, with an overall margin of sampling error of ±1.79 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This report is also based on data collected online from a random-sample panel of 5,211 U.S. households in March 2010. The survey targeted respondents based on representative proportions of gender, age and income compared to the overall U.S. online population. Overall margin of sampling error is ±1.36% at the 95% confidence level.
Additionally, this report includes data collected online from a random-sample panel of 2,779 respondents in April 2009, with an overall margin of sampling error of ±1.86 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. It also incorporates the 2009 and 2010 Mobile Banking Scorecards, which reviewed the top 18 and 19 financial institutions offering customer-facing mobile banking services (out of the top 40 and 30 financial institutions, respectively, by deposit base). The surveys targeted respondents based on representative proportions of gender, age, income and ethnicity compared to the overall U.S. online population.
Rounding (in the underlying numbers) in charts accounts for the slight differences in percentages. The majority of Javelin data for online banking financial alerts is based on “online households” vs. individual consumers. This is a typical way of presenting online banking data because account management is typically collected on a per-household basis. In 2009, the U.S. population was estimated to comprise 310 million people.1 That number includes 232 million adults, 118 million households and 87 million households that are online. On average, there are about 2.6 people per household. Javelin also collects online-banking data using a base of all consumers for comparison purposes.
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