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China Real Estate Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 78
The China Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's Real Estate industry.
The latest (mid-2010) round of interviews with our in-country sources in China confirm that, overall, the authorities in Beijing (who see the real estate sector as an instrument with which the overall economic growth rate can be lifted to) and local governments (who part fund their operations through land sales) have been reasonably adroit in their management of markets. Across the four cities from which we have gathered data – Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan and, from mid-2010, Shenzhen – price falls and property gluts were a challenge for protagonists in most sub-sectors two years ago. Now, the markets have stabilised. Our in-country sources reported that rental rates have fallen by single-digit amounts in each of the three main sub-sectors in Shanghai. Rentals has moved sideways or tracked sideways in the other cities.
Looking forward to 2011, our sources are confident that rental rates will rise in Shanghai and Beijing. The improvement in conditions is not just the result of a government fiat. It is partly a reflection of the general buoyancy of the economy and official attempts to boost domestic demand in the wake of the global financial crisis. It is also a reflection of ongoing urbanisation, a mega-trend, which involves one of the largest migrations of people in the history of mankind. However, it has also become obvious that real estate developers discounted property through 2009 and early 2010 in order to make sales.
Looking forward, we expect that capital values and yields will change little. We note, however, that rents may rise in Shenzhen from 2012 as new space is made available as a result of projects which are currently under way. Crucially, we remain confident that the various protagonists (ie the developers and the various governments) will be able to manage supply/demand conditions so as to prevent a precipitous collapse in rental yields.
This report is based on interviews with in-country sources in late February and July 2010.
Key Features Of This Report:
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries?
In Q3 we have introduced a very substantial new improvement to the reports. We have incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology sector of this report.
In Q4, we have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. We gained this data by way of a new round of interviews with our in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from our sources has caused us to make significant revisions to our forecasts for 2011-2014. We asked our sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. We explain their answers in the Forecast Scenarios.
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