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France Real Estate Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 54
The France Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's Real Estate industry.
'In absolute terms, there is, and has been an over-supply of commercial real estate in most major cities and sub-sectors in France. Nevertheless, our interviews of in-country sources in March 2010 and July 2010 have confirmed that the global financial crisis has had far less impact on the sector than in most other countries surveyed by BMI.
Rental rates fell during 2009, and continued to slip marginally in Paris and Marseille through the first half of 2010. However, thanks apparently to a recovery in tourism, rental rates have already started to recover in Nice. Looking forward, our in-country sources envisage that rents will rise by around 5% in all three cities and sub-sectors for which we have gathered data.
The figures cited by our in-country sources suggest that capital values fell last year, but not by much. Yields rose, and by more in Nice than in the other two cities. We expect that yields will fall back to around the levels that were prevailing in 2007-08.
More generally, we are maintaining our 2010 and 2011 real GDP forecasts of 1.5% and 1.6% respectively, following a 2.2% contraction in 2009. While France is unlikely to relapse into recession, the recovery will be sluggish, and significant downside risks are presented by weak pan-European fiscal dynamics and their potential contagion effects.
Key Features Of This Report:
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries?
In Q3 we have introduced a very substantial new improvement to the reports. We have incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology sector of this report.
In Q4, we have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. We gained this data by way of a new round of interviews with our in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from our sources has caused us to make significant revisions to our forecasts for 2011-2014. We asked our sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. We explain their answers in the Forecast Scenarios.
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