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Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 82
Business Monitor International's Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Croatia’s pharmaceutical market, valued at HRK5.74bn (US$1.10bn) in 2009, is calculated to have fallen by 4.95% year-on-year (y-o-y) in local currency terms, mostly due to pressures from strict pricing and reimbursement environments, which were exacerbated by the economic downturn. As a percentage of GDP, drug expenditure fell to 1.72% in 2009 from 1.76% in 2008 and was thus just below average in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region.
Pharmaceutical market growth in Croatia is predicted to return to positive territory in 2010, but only just, at 0.10% y-o-y in local currency. Through to 2014, the market is forecast to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.47%, as patent expirations also play a role in its development. The subsequent five years are expected to witness an improvement in annual growth rates, which leads us to calculate that the value of the Croatian pharmaceutical market will reach HRK7.97bn (US$1.38bn) in 2019. The tenyear CAGR rates are expected to come in at 3.33% and 2.28% in local currency and US dollar terms, respectively.
Generally speaking, we view Croatia as a fairly unattractive market in the longer term. In BMI’s Business Environment Ratings (BER) matrix for Q410, Croatia slipped from twelfth to seventeenth position, out of the total of 20 markets surveyed in the Emerging Europe region. The worsening of its position was partly due to a lower composite score, but also to improvements in absolute scores for other emerging markets in the region, which are expected to undergo a faster recovery and post stronger annual growth rates. On the other hand, Croatia is making concerted efforts to meet its European Union (EU) membership requirements, which should facilitate market access for foreign players. Globally, Croatia is placed 56th, out of the total of 83 markets surveyed in our pharmaceutical universe.
Prescription market values will be challenged by the climate of cost-containment, while over-the-counter (OTC) medicines will be facing difficulties posed by the recent economic downturn and a high unemployment rate (of over 17% in early 2010). Nevertheless, with EU membership on the cards for 2013 and convergence gains still to be realised, we maintain a positive long-term view on the Croatian economy, thus also expecting the OTC sector to gradually gain market shares from the prescription market. We caution, however, that delayed EU membership or a more protracted economic recovery present key risks to this outlook over the longer term. In the meantime, the continued improvement in judicial efficiency, eradication of corruption, improvement in market transparency and privatisation of state entities will drive further improvements in the country's investment appeal.
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