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Iran Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 78
Business Monitor International's Iran Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Iran’s pharmaceutical market was worth IRN22,765bn (US$2.31bn) in 2009. BMI forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 2014, when the drug market should be worth around IRN42,001bn (US$3.41bn). In US dollar terms, compound annual growth will be lower at around 8% y-o-y.
An expanding population and investment in the healthcare sector will be the main drivers of growth. However, general inflation is expected to average 14.8% over the five-year forecast period, meaning drug expenditure will be relatively stagnant in real terms. By 2019, drug expenditure should reach IRN65,103bn (US$4.14bn), equivalent to a 2010-2019 CAGR of 11% in local currency. The slower growth reflects our expectations for inflation to moderate to around 10% a year in the longer term. The drug market in Iran is heavily in favour of generic medicines, which contributed US$1.23bn to the total in 2009. The prevalence of generics in the market is due to cost-saving measures and the fact that, according to the Ministry of Health, Iran produces over 95% of the drugs it consumes by volume. This proportion has remained relatively constant since 2001. However, the value share of local producers has gradually declined, mainly as a consequence of the opening up of the market to more high-tech products that cannot be produced locally. This trend is expected to continue in the medium term, although we note there are several drugmakers that are gradually developing the ability to innovate.
In early 2010, the Ministry of Health declared its aim that Iran should become fully self-sufficient within four years. There are almost 70 pharmaceutical companies in Iran, concentrating mainly on the production of generics and copies of foreign products. Iran also boasts around 30 producers of herbal medicines. The largest drugmaker in Iran is currently Darou Pakhsh Pharmaceutical Mfg. In BMI’s Middle East and Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q410, Iran slips down to ninth place from eighth in the previous quarter. Compared with its regional neighbours, Iran scores well for Industry Rewards, given its substantial (and growing) overall population numbers and healthcare modernisation initiatives, but is let down by Industry Risks and Country Risks. The presence of foreign pharmaceutical companies is restricted to licensing agreements with local manufactrers. Iran’s business environment remains unattractive to overseas investors, hampering inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI).
The Iranian government has made substantial investments in the development of the healthcare system, with investments paving the way for an increase in the number of doctors and hospitals in the country, although quality issues have yet to be resolved. The government has attempted to improve public access to primary and preventative care, particularly in the rural areas where more than 35% of the population resides.
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