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Netherlands Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 77
Business Monitor International's Netherlands Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands' pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI calculates that drug sales in the Netherlands reached EUR6.00bn (US$8.45bn) at consumer prices in 2009. Through to 2014, we expect the market to stagnate, posting a local currency compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.00% and a CAGR of -2.36% in US dollar terms. Key reasons behind such forecasts are the pending expirations of patents on a number of leading molecules, as well as the increased focus on the usage of generics in the Netherlands. Over our longer, ten-year, forecasts, we expect the CAGRs to recover to 1.67% and 0.46% in local currency and US dollar terms, respectively. BMI calculates that drug sales in the Netherlands will reach a value of EUR7.08bn (US$8.85bn) by 2019. Consequently, in BMI’s Q410 Business Environment Ratings (BER) matrix for the 10 key Western European markets (now including Sweden), the Netherlands remains in seventh place, above Portugal, Spain and Italy. Globally, the Netherlands remains ranked 15th, sandwiched between the Czech Republic above and Brazil below. The country’s strong and transparent regulatory framework means it scores strongly in terms of risk. However, poor market prospects – due to pressures on pricing and reimbursement – will continue to weigh down the country’s composite overall score.
In terms of key company news over the past few months, the fact that US major Merck & Co reported that it will cut over 2,100 jobs in the Netherlands – as part of its restructuring plan following the acquisition of compatriot Schering-Plough in 2009 – serves to illustrate our view that sales forces will continue to contract in developed states, while those in emerging markets will expand. Merck & Co is also to close its research and development (R&D) sites at locations in Canada, Denmark, Germany, Scotland and the US.
In the meantime, the Dutch economy looks set to continue a subdued recovery in the coming quarters, having finally returned to positive year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in Q110. However, while we have marginally raised our real GDP growth forecast for 2010 - to 0.6%, from 0.3% previously – y-o-y growth rates have in fact benefited from significant base effects. In fact, growth should remain fragile as economic activity will be constrained by a weak job market, low investment and greater fiscal austerity further down the road, which will also predicate a challenging environment for pharmaceutical market stakeholders. Moreover, subdued private consumption, tighter fiscal policy and a weak economic outlook among major trading partners within the EU are expected to limit upside potential for growth in the coming quarters, especially as the economy remains highly prominent in the Dutch political sphere following the June 2010 national polls (won by the free-market liberal VVD leader Mark Rutte) and the pending formation of a new administration.
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