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Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uzbekistan's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI’s growth projection for Uzbekistan’s pharmaceutical market remains largely unchanged this quarter, with its five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast at 10.37% in US dollar terms between 2009 and 2014, reaching a total value of UZS977.51bn (US$519mn) by the end of the forecast period. Overall economic growth is expected to remain strong at between 7% and 8%. Industrial output is robust and the country’s energy sector – while modest compared with Turkmenistan – will be providing growing revenues, as will transit fees from the new Trans-Eurasian pipeline. If Russia’s economy sees a sustained pick up, income from remittances – down sharply during the economic crisis – will be another fillip for the economy.
The pharmaceutical sector has been a priority for the government, at least according to its official pronouncements. Uzpharmsanoat, the state-controlled pharmaceutical holding, has attracted a number of joint-venture partners to develop manufacturing in the country. For foreign pharmaceutical players willing to entertain high levels of risk, Uzbekistan’s market of 30mn, fast-growing economy and pent up demand make it one of the most attractive in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Still, the country remains the worst major market to do business in the region according to BMI’s Business Environment Ratings, with the recent unrest in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan underlining the dangers of poverty, corruption and ethnic tensions in the Ferghana valley and wider region.
The regime of Islam Karimov has pursued, as have those in other CIS countries, an import substitution regime aimed at lowering dependency on drug imports (and accompanying exchange-rate and security concerns) as well as getting a bigger slice of the lucrative margin industry for local players. Practically, the government passed a new law on pharmaceuticals earlier this year which aims to better punish counterfeiters and which limits the licence term for pharmaceutical producers to five years. Uzpharmsanoat is in the middle of a US$30mn modernisation programme due to be completed at the end of 2011. The key for the state is to attract outside technology and investment. Notably, despite a business environment that is palpably more difficult than neighbouring Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan has benefited from a larger population and the existence of a big statebacked player with access to capital and a high degree of political security.
Local industry sources report that a project to build a GMP-compliant vaccines factory with Hungary’s Omnivest is going ahead. In July 2010, local media reported that Korean Trust Investment Trading was building a US$4mn pharmaceutical packaging factory as part of a 50%-50% joint venture with Uzpharmsanoat due to open by the end of the year in the Navoi Free Industrial-Economic Zone (NFIEZ). Japan’s Overseas Medical Equipment Technical Assistance (OMETA) is reportedly eyeing the same region to develop medical equipment production. Grimly, unrest in Kyrgyzstan, along with the lack of production capacity in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan mean Uzbekistan has a potential regional role – but the state would benefit greatly if it dealt with notorious customs delays and was less suspicious of foreign NGOs.
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