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Belarus Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 55
Business Monitor International's Belarus Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belarus' food and drink industry.
While the Belarusian food industry is much smaller than in neighbouring Russia and Ukraine, which also benefit from having much larger populations, the local industry is far from saturated and has plenty of scope for growth and foreign investment. Expansion of mass grocery retail (MGR) outlets outside the capital in the medium term will help to improve sales of higher-value items. In the current year, however, inflationary pressures will act as a brake on discretionary spending, with per capita food consumption expected to post a 6.47% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase, in local currency terms. In contrast, per capita food consumption values rose by almost 20% in 2008, which also followed a double-digit rise in 2007.
Headline Industry Data
- 2010 food consumption = +6.5%; forecast to 2014 = +61.2%
- 2010 per capita food consumption = +7.0%; forecast to 2014 = +65.3%
- 2010 alcoholic drinks sales = +7.1%; forecast to 2014 = +59.0%
- 2010 per capita alcoholic drinks sales = +7.7%; forecast to 2014 = +63.0%
Key Company Trends
Increased foreign investment as companies await better times elsewhere: In a show of confidence in the Belarusian beer market, Carlsberg increased its equity stake in Olivaria Brewery – the country’s third largest beer company by market share – from 30% to 47% in July 2010. This sort of investment should allow Carlsberg to build its portfolio regionally, while the Russian market – which is considered a very high-potential beer market in the long term – recuperates. While we do not expect Belarus to be as a strategically dynamic market for Carlsberg over the long term (it has a population under 10mn), it will continue to make sense for Carlsberg to leverage off its position in Russia as it aims to strengthen its foothold across the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region.
Key Risks To Outlook
Government’s desire to increase investment as an upside: Belarus has prioritised the creation of the conditions necessary to attract further foreign investment in areas such as agriculture. The Belarusian government is trying to make the country one of the best 30 business environments in the world and is revising an action plan on how to achieve this goal. Much policy shifting is necessary, given that the country is currently 58th out of the 180 countries assessed in the World Bank’s 2010 Doing Business Report, although some medium-term progress can be expected.
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