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France Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Description:
The France Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's defence and security industry.
As Western countries look to cut back on government spending in the wake of the global financial crisis and the need for fiscal deficit reduction, defence budgets have increasingly come under threat. For the French defence industry, this may lead to greater geographical diversification as players look to tap into growth in rising markets in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Meanwhile, it is likely to lead to some hard choices for the French armed forces. BMI forecasts that France will meet its target of reducing the number of military personnel (excluding reservists and gendarmerie) to 225,000 by 2013-14, largely through cuts in the army and air forces.
Reports in mid-2010 suggested that both the UK and France could ease the burden on their exchequers by pooling capital-intensive military equipment. British Defence Secretary Liam Fox has suggested that the two countries could “pool“ aircraft refuelling tankers, naval units and particularly Airbus A400M military transport planes, of which France has 50 on order, and will be the first country to receive the units. Fox’s move to rule out aircraft carrier sharing, and his enthusiasm for cooperation on the A400M may be indicative of continued caution, suggesting as it does that the UK will pool resources for logistics equipment, but shy away from doing the same for combat units.
Internal terrorist threats remain an ongoing concern. In September 2010, France’s anti-terror chief Squarcini Bernard had warned that “the threat [of terrorism in France] has never been greater,” in an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche. Bernard said that on average, France foils two terrorist attacks every year, a level perhaps lower than Britain and the US, but still of concern to the French authorities. Bernard also stated that terrorism inspired by “religious fanaticism” is significant, though he asserted that the number of potential terrorists and terrorist centres is low, and that the authorities are generally able to keep tabs on them. It is worth pointing out that public announcements by officials on terrorism are generally carefully couched and do not reveal the full extent of counter-terrorism intelligence, but Bernard’s statement can be used as a guideline nonetheless.
In September 2010, Arutz Sheva reported that France had foiled a planned terrorist attack on a fundraising event for the Israel Defence Force (IDF) in Paris, citing comments made by anti-terror chief Squarcini Bernard to Le Journal du Dimanche.
France has Western Europe’s largest Jewish population (and the third largest in the world), as well as its second largest Muslim population, though tensions between the communities have rarely raised security concerns.
Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
France Security SWOT
France Defence Industry SWOT
France Political SWOT
France Economic SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots
Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
Latin America: Beyond Lula
Western Europe: All About Austerity
Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
Wild Cards To Watch
European Regional Security Overview
Central and Eastern Europe Overview
Political Overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
Defence and Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
France’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Western Europe City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
Timeline: Internal Threats
External Security Situation
Latest Developments
Timeline: External Security
Armed Forces and Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Western European Armed Forces, 2010
International Deployments
Table: Principal Deployments of the French Armed Forces:
Co-ordination and Joint Operations
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends and Developments
Timeline: Defence and Procurement
Arms Trade Overview
Table: Key Players In The French Defence Industry
Procurement Background
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: French Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
Table: Western European Armed Forces, 2010
Government Expenditure
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry, 2007-2014
Macroeconomic Forecast
Company Profiles
Dassault Aviation
DCNS
EADS
Thales
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
Companies Mentioned
- Dassault Aviation
- DCNS
- EADS
- Thales
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