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Hong Kong Real Estate Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 68
Hong Kong Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's Real Estate industry.
Our interviews with in-country sources in Hong Kong in February and July 2010 indicate that the Special Administrative Region (SAR)’s commercial real estate market is clearly recovering well after a difficult period in 2009. Rents have stabilised and are now rising. Further increases are expected next year. Yields in the office and retail sub-sectors have fallen back to levels that were prevailing prior to the global financial crisis. The implication is that capital values are expected to grow steadily in a market that has benefited over time from both careful management by the Hong Kong government as well as the growth in trade.
Yields in the industrial sector appear to have fallen sharply over the last year or so. Looking forward, we expect yields to move sideways in the office and retail sub-sectors. In the industrial sub-sector, however, yields should rise from what appear to be unreasonably low levels.
Key Features Of This Report
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries?
In Q3 we have introduced a very substantial new improvement to the reports. We have incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology sector of this report.
In Q4, we have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. We gained this data by way of a new round of interviews with our in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from our sources has caused us to make significant revisions to our forecasts for 2011-2014. We asked our sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. We explain their answers in the Forecast Scenario section.
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