|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Hong Kong Shipping Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 96
Hong Kong Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's shipping industry.
BMI has observed mixed fortunes across the big-three shipping sectors - dry bulk, liquid bulk and containers - so far in 2010. While 2009 was the year that container shipping plummeted while dry bulk outperformed, 2010 so far has seen the opposite. In the dry bulk sector BMI has witnessed a playing out of the 'China effect' in reverse as there has been a notable retrenchment in Chinese imports of the two main materials involved in steel production - iron ore and coking coal - which fell in both April and May on the back of an increasingly cautious property and construction sector. This has been coupled with a growing oversupply of ships, which we believe will come to a head in H2. BMI expects conditions in the dry bulk sector to get worse before they get better.
Liquid bulk has so far performed better than either of the other core sectors in 2010. However, despite a strong H1, BMI cautions that the outlook for liquid bulk over the second half of the year is likely to deteriorate on the back of a worsening demand picture. At the forefront of our concerns is the likelihood of a slowdown in Chinese crude oil demand during the later months of the year and into 2011 as the economy slows from its current level of growth.
Container shipping has seen year-on-year (y-o-y) recovery across the globe, yet has still not reached its pre-downturn levels of 2008 in most markets. BMI's core view is that demand for container shipping will start to fall again in H2. This is down to the sluggish recovery of the US economy and the austerity measures being implemented in Europe. The US and eurozone are the two key markets for the container shipping sector.
It is the container shipping sector that has the most effect on Hong Kong. While Hong Kong-registered companies have been investing in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers for use in China, it is the box shipping sector that is Hong Kong's lifeblood. It is a huge re-shipper of Chinese goods to Europe and the US, and is hugely exposed to these markets. Should European consumer demand drastically fall on the back of fiscal tightening, Hong Kong can expect to be directly affected. Our core view is that this is beginning to happen already, as a number of peak-season surcharges have now been delayed, leading to the conclusion that the H1 signs of recovery were misleading, or at least premature.
If throughput at the port of Hong Kong continues at its current level for the rest of the year then it will result in a throughput of 22.9mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), which will be slightly higher than BMI's forecast of 21.7mn TEUs. While the figures for H110 are up 16.1% on H109, growth has slowed. Preliminary TEU throughput released by the port of Hong Kong for June is up just 1.3% on that recorded in January, and is in fact less than the preliminary figure for May.
These figures would appear to support BMI's forecast that container throughput at the port of Hong Kong will grow by an average of just 2.53% y-o-y from 2010 to 2014, failing to reach pre-downturn figures recorded in 2008.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Israel Shipping Report Q4 2010
Pakistan Shipping Report Q4 2010
Qatar Shipping Report Q4 2010
Oman Shipping Report Q1 2011
South Africa Shipping Report Q4 2010
Croatia Shipping Report Q1 2011
Romania Shipping Report Q1 2011
Poland Shipping Report Q4 2010
Iran Shipping Report Q4 2010
Philippines Shipping Report Q1 2011
|
|
|
|
