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Iran Shipping Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 104
Iran Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's shipping industry.
BMI's Iran Container View
In our view neither a projected slowdown in global box volumes nor current sanctions will slow growth in Iran's container shipping sector.
The country's main container port Bandar Abbas, defied the downturn in 2009, posting a year-on-year (yo- y) increase in box volumes of 10% to reach 2.2mn TEU. We project further growth over the mid term with the box throughput at the facility projected to pass the 3mn TEU milestone in 2014. Sanctions are currently concentrated toward Iran's oil production and gasoline exports, but we fear that with the spot light being shone on Iran's state owned shipping company, Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL) container operations of the firm could be hit with more stop and searches of IRISL's vessels on the cards.
The company has already demonstrated its ability to get round previous sanctions and Iran has already fired a warning shot that if any of its ships are searched it will respond in kind. However, further sanctions could lead to downside potential to our trade and port throughput forecasts for Iran.
BMI's Iran Container Shipping Key Views:
- Box throughput at Iran's main container port managed to continue growing in the downturn, highlighting the strength of box-shipping demand
- Large young consumer base spurring container demand
- Sanctions offer obvious downside risk to lines operating in Iran's container shipping sector
- Port development likely to become reliant on domestic firms as international companies are warned off
While BMI holds a global container shipping view that the container sector's recovery will slow in H210, we believe that Iran is fairly well insulated from this threat and that box throughput at the port of Bandar Abbas will grow at a stronger rate than in 2009
BMI's Global Container Shipping Key Views:
- Y-o-y recovery, but not near 2008 levels
- Consumer demand in core box markets of US and Europe to fall
- Weakening demand view starting to play out as peak-season surcharges delayed
- Recovery signs in H1 may have been misleading
- Intra-Asia trade routes an area of potential growth and development
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