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Singapore Shipping Report Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 104
Singapore Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's shipping industry.
Singapore's position as the world's busiest container terminal was likely to be under threat from Shanghai this year, according to press reports. While Singapore is certainly busy, the rebound in world trade levels has been boosting box handling at Shanghai with particular vigour. Data from port authorities showed that in the second quarter, and for the first time, Shanghai handled more containers than Singapore. Data for the first half showed Singapore still barely ahead, having moved 14.05mn TEUs, versus 13.85mn TEUs at Shanghai.
In our last quarterly report we spoke of Singapore's V-shaped recovery, following the 2009 recession. Three months on, the V-shape has become sharper and more pronounced. Data showing a spectacularly strong performance in Q110 led by manufacturing and exports prompted BMI to raise its 2010 GDP forecast to 12.8%, followed by a dip to 3.3% in 2011 as the restocking effect begins to fade. Across the next five years we are predicting average annual GDP growth of 5.9%, which will provide sustained support for the freight transport sector.
As the world economy gathers pace, the Port of Singapore (POS) is experiencing a significant recovery in tonnage throughput. During the global recession last year, tonnage fell by a sharp 8.4%; now, in view if the strength of Singapore's recovery, we see all of that ground being made up. BMI is predicting POS tonnage will rise by 9.5% this year, with growth continuing into 2011 at the more moderate rate of 4.2%. POS will battle it out with Shanghai for the title of the world's largest container port in 2010. Last year POS box traffic slumped by 13.5%. In 2010 we see positive growth of 9.4%, followed by 5.0% expansion in 2011.
In real terms Singapore's total trade is set to expand by 11.7% this year, after a 10.0% contraction in 2009. After restoring last year's lost ground, we expect Singapore to settle down to rather more moderate trade growth. Average annual trade growth in the next five years will be 6.5%, a little ahead of GDP. This year, export growth will be marginally ahead of imports, but over the five-year time span we expect both to be roughly on a par. In nominal terms, exports will surge by 21.2% this year to US$435.5bn, while imports will be fractionally slower, gaining 21.0% to US$391bn.
On the whole, risks to our Singapore shipping forecasts are evenly balanced, perhaps pointing slightly more now to the downside. The main risk in this sense is that world trade could experience a steeper than expected slowdown in 2011, perhaps propelled by further financial difficulties in Europe or elsewhere - indeed, any sudden event that might undermine still-fragile investor confidence.
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