Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 68
Business Monitor International's Gabon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Gabon's oil and gas industry.
The new Gabon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.40% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 2.05% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.75mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.81mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.26mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged 9.67mn b/d. From a projected 10.23mn b/d in 2010, it is set to rise to 11.93mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total had risen to 5.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.67mn b/d by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 122.9bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 165.6bcm forecast for 2014. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 305.2bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 97bcm to 140bcm in 2014. Gabon is neither a significant regional producer nor consumer of gas.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% (yo- y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a fullyear outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Gabon’s real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 3.0% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.1% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 13,560b/d in 2009 to 16,978b/d in 2014. State oil company Société Nationale Petrolière Gabonaise (SNPG) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to decrease from 229,000b/d in 2009 to 245,000b/d in 2014. Gas production should reach 1bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 0.1bcm in 2009. Consumption is expected to follow the production trend, with no need for imports but no surplus gas to export.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decline in Gabon oil and gas liquids production of 11.5%, with volumes peaking at 260,000b/d in 2011, before falling steadily to 221,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 55.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 21,700b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to be 1bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 400% between 2010 and 2019, there should be a balanced market, with no need for imports or scope for exports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Gabon holds seventh place in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country now shares first place with Libya in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The country will struggle to defend its position over the medium term, and the presence of Algeria, Nigeria and Angola below poses a threat. The county’s score benefits from healthy gas output growth prospects, a particularly high gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is fragile, but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. Gabon is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or new refineries are built. It now shares eighth place with Equatorial Guinea, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population.
Executive Summary
Gabon Energy Market Overview
- Global Oil Market Review
- Quarterly Trends
- Deepwater Turbulence
- Global Oil Market Outlook
- Waiting For The Wind To Change
- Oil Price Forecasts
- Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
- Short-Term Demand Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Short-Term Supply Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
- Longer-Term Supply And Demand
- Oil Price Assumptions
- Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
- Table: Oil Price Forecasts
- Regional Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2007-2014 (000b/d)
- Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2007-2014 (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2007-2014 (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Business Environment Ratings
Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings
- Gabon Upstream Rating – Overview
- Gabon Upstream Rating – Rewards
- Gabon Upstream Rating – Risks
- Downstream Scores
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings
- Gabon Downstream Rating – Overview
- Gabon Downstream Rating – Rewards
- Gabon Downstream Rating – Risks
- Risk Summary
- Political Risk
- Economic Risk
Business Environment
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Gabon Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Gabon Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Gabon – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players – Gabon Energy Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- Addax Petroleum
- Total Gabon – Summary
- Shell Gabon – Summary
- Maurel & Prom – Summary
- Vaalco Energy – Summary
- Perenco – Summary
- Eni – Summary
- Tullow Oil – Summary
- Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Regional Oil Demand
- Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2012-2019 (000b/d)
- Regional Oil Supply
- Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2012-2019 (000b/d)
- Regional Refining Capacity
- Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2012-2019 (000b/d)
- Regional Gas Demand
- Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2012-2019 (bcm)
- Regional Gas Supply
- Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2012-2019 (bcm)
- Gabon Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
- Glossary Of Terms
- Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
- Introduction
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
- Indicators
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Energy Industry
- Cross checks
- Sources
- Addax Petroleum
- Total Gabon
- Shell Gabon
- Maurel & Prom
- Vaalco Energy
- Perenco
- Eni
- Tullow Oil
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