|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 65
Business Monitor International's Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Republic of Congo's oil and gas industry.
The latest Republic of Congo Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.20% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 2.76% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.75mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.81mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.26mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged 9.67mn b/d. From an estimated 10.23mn b/d in 2010, it is set to rise to 11.93mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total had risen to 5.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.67mn b/d by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 122.9bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 165.6bcm forecast for 2014. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 305.2bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 97bcm to 140bcm in 2014. The Republic of Congo makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. We forecast that the Republic of Congo’s real GDP will rise by 11.2% in 2010 and assume average annual growth of 5.9% 2010-2014. We see oil demand rising from an estimated 6,900b/d in 2010 to 8,400b/d in 2014. State oil company Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Around a third of the oil produced goes directly to the government and is sold by SNPC on behalf of the state. Thanks to higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from 274,000b/d in 2009 to a peak of 350,000b/d in 2011, before easing to 329,000b/d in 2014. Gas production should reach 2.0bcm by 2014. Consumption is expected to track the production trend.
Between 2010 and 2019 we forecast a fall in the Republic of Congo’s oil and gas liquids production of 12.42%, with volumes peaking at 350,000b/d in 2011, before falling steadily to 298,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 55.13%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 10,800b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 3bcm by the end of the period. With demand moving in line, there is unlikely to be a need for imports or any potential for net exports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
RoC is ranked eighth in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now takes eighth place, behind Egypt, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The county’s score benefits from reasonable oil and gas output growth prospects, respectable reserves to production ratios (RPR) and relatively attractive licensing terms. The risk environment is shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. RoC is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely. It now holds 10th place, ahead only of Cameroon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and forecast GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil consumption and the country’s low retail site intensity are relatively strong suits.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Egypt Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Libya Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Angola Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
|
|
|
|
