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Brazil Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 114
Business Monitor International's Brazil Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Brazil has reinforced its credentials as one of the world's fastest growing economies, with newly released real GDP data coming in above expectations and growing by an impressive 9.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q110 – the quickest rate in 15 years. In seasonally-adjusted terms, too, the country's economic recovery continues to defy the problems of more developed economies, with quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth recorded at 2.7%, despite upward revisions to both the Q309 and Q409 readings (from 1.7% q-o-q to 2.2% q-o-q, and 2.0% q-o-q to 2.3% q-o-q, respectively). As such, BMI believe that even increasingly strident efforts to cool the pace of economic growth will be unable to bring the full-year rate of expansion down to our previous 5.3% real GDP forecast for 2010 and so we are revising up our projection, albeit to a still-below consensus 6.0%.
BMI forecasts pharmaceutical sales increasing at compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.44% in local currency terms through to 2014. From 2009 to 2019, only a minor increase in CAGR to 9.14% is projected, characterised by growth moving towards mid-single digits in later years. In US dollar terms, a slightly higher CAGR of 11.44% is forecast through to 2019, making the market more attractive for foreign investors. BMI expects pharmaceutical sales in Brazil to reach US$31.01bn by 2014 and US$47.26bn by 2019.
BMI’s average Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rating for the 17 markets of the Americas has increased marginally in Q410. Brazil receives a composite rating of 63.2, having increased against the previous quarter. Brazil ranks fourth in the Americas region. On a global basis, Brazil has risen to 16th position, overtaking China – which previously had an equal score, but has now dropped to 21st. As a region, the Americas ranks second only to Western Europe in terms of attractiveness to multinational drugmakers.
Brazil’s generic medicine sector is the largest in Latin America, valued at BRL5.08bn (US$2.54bn) in 2009 after yet another year of strong gains. In H110, generic drug sales were up 34.1% by volume and 38.1% by revenue compared with the same period in the previous year, representing the largest increase registered by the sector since 2003. BMI forecasts generic drug sales to grow at a US dollar CAGR of 17.3% though 2019, while the patented drug market, valued at BRL20.41bn (US$10.21bn) in 2009, is projected to grow at a US dollar CAGR of 9.06% through the same period.
Between 2004 and 2009, pharmaceutical imports grew by almost 150% to US$2.63bn. In order to reduce the country’s dependence on drugs manufactured abroad, the Brazilian government has shown commitment to supporting the consolidation of the national pharmaceutical industry, with the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) allocating over BRL1.3bn (US$734mn) since 2007 for the development of a national pharmaceutical industrial complex (Proframa). Also, Brazilian regulatory agencies are looking to reinforce good manufacturing practices (GMP) for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in an attempt to improve quality standards and increase international competitiveness
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