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Ghana Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Ghana Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ghana's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Having been calculated at GHS286mn (US$200mn) at consumer prices in 2009, pharmaceutical spending in Ghana is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.2% in local currency terms, to reach GHS555mn (US$509mn) by 2014. This translates into a US dollar CAGR of 20.6%, as the local tender appreciates. Per-capita spending on medicines will increase from US$8.4 in 2009 to US$19.4 by 2014, driven largely by oil-sourced revenues, although we caution that income distribution will be uneven. In fact, the proportion of GDP dedicated to pharmaceutical spending is expected to decline from 1.3% in 2009 to 0.9% by 2014, reflecting our cautious view that increased oil revenues may not result in proportional spending increases. Through to 2019, this figure will fall further, to 0.8%, though this still translating into considerably higher per-capita spending of US$43.3.
Pharmaceutical sales will be driven by the continued expansion of the government-subsidised National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS). The programme will also support the development of Ghana’s medical devices market, which is presently in the early stages of development. Even in the private sector, medical devices used are often refurbished equipment. Although the capital required for the purchase of medical equipment is often lacking, the government’s commitment to healthcare modernisation has generally been associated with increasing demand for a range of medical devices. The government will remain the single most important purchaser of medical devices in Ghana, even though much equipment is currently sourced through donations.
Overall, we see Ghana as one of the most promising emerging market in Middle East and Africa (MEA), although it remains ranked 15th of the 19 markets BMI surveyed in its Q410 Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for the region. The country’s scores are similar on the risks and rewards sides, with longer-term potential provided by rising population numbers and the prevalent disease burden, as communicable conditions such as HIV/AIDs and malaria continue to create steady demand for antiinfective treatments. Additionally, the country’s regulatory environment is one of the most advanced in its immediate neighbourhood, which will continue to support its score. However, some work will have to be done to address pricing disparities for the same medicine across different districts. The local pharmaceutical industry is increasingly attracting foreign attention. A notable recent entrant from abroad is South Africa's Adcock Ingram, which offered around US$23.7mn for a 51% stake in Ghanaian drugmaker Ayrton Drugs Manufacturing Company (ADMC) in November 2009. The company finalised the acquisition in April 2010, taking over almost 66% of Ayrton’s stock. However, as the Ghanaian economy is treading a difficult path to oil production, with tight domestic credit conditions and recent utility tariff hikes affecting private consumption, we have lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in 2010 to 5.6%, from 6.1% previously, which may restrict the availability of finances for medicines.
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