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Forecast Insight: Asthma/COPD - Pipeline potential outweighs downward pressure from generics
Datamonitor, Sep 2010, Pages: 115
Datamonitor estimates that in 2009 asthma/COPD sales reached $21.5 billion in the seven major markets. The next 10 years will see the dynamic pipeline fracture a market currently dominated by a handful of blockbuster brands. While patent expiries will create downward pressure, Datamonitor forecasts the asthma/COPD market will reach sales of $24.2 billion by 2019, with a 2009-2019 CAGR of 1.2%.
- Insight into market potential including current market trends, changing regulations and recent pipeline developments
- 10 year country, indication, and device specific forecasts for individual products, taking into account competitive positioning and key market events
- Profiles of currently marketed products including discussion of key opportunities and threats, with in-depth analysis of potential generic erosion
- Insight into late-stage pipeline products including analysis of the latest data from the European Respiratory Society September 2010 Congress
Substantial growth was seen in the asthma/COPD market from 2006-09, driven by combination products, with a CAGR of 10.4% in the seven major markets. Datamonitor estimates that 2009 sales reached $21.5 billion. Generic erosion will impact key brands, but pipeline products are forecast to drive growth, with the market reaching $24.2 billion by 2019.
In 2009, the ICS/LABA class made up 36% of asthma/COPD sales in the seven major markets, reaching $7.8 billion. Future blockbuster potential lies in once-daily ICS/LABAs, and GlaxoSmithKline’s Relovair is the most advanced once-daily ICS/LABA, now in Phase III. It is expected to reach asthma/COPD sales of $3.2 billion by 2019.
The COPD market will see the first long-acting bronchodilator combinations, which will threaten the current gold standard Spiriva (tiotropium; Boehringer Ingelheim) and reach sales of $1.9 billion by 2019. With companies developing molecules for both monotherapies and combinations, careful brand positioning will be crucial.
- Quantify the size and scope of the asthma and COPD market and the changing market dynamics from 2009-2019
- Understand asthma and COPD market trends including drivers of success and the impact of changing regulations
- Gain insight into the recent advances in the asthma and COPD pipeline and access forecasts of 13 novel products
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